OHB Keeps Its Buy Rating and Its Order Book — the Reported Numbers Are Another Matter
Published on 11/13/2026 at 21:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
NuWays has reaffirmed its buy call on OHB SE with a twelve-month price target of €340, even as the satellite and space-systems maker's stock came under heavy selling pressure following its quarterly release. The brokerage's conviction rests less on the quarter just reported than on what the company must deliver in the three months to come.
The third-quarter figures, published a day before the NuWays note, cut both ways. Total output reached €319m against a consensus of €331m, so revenue-side delivery fell short. Profitability told the opposite story: the adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 12.3%, with adjusted EBITDA of €39.3m, marginally ahead of the €39.0m consensus.
Special items drive the wedge between adjusted and reported profit
Where the two pictures diverge sharply is at the reported line. EBITDA as disclosed was €31.1m, well below the €36.7m analysts had pencilled in, with €8.2m of special costs weighing on the result. Transaction expenses account for the bulk of those charges, and they are not confined to a single quarter: adjustments across the first nine months of 2026 totalled €32.2m, of which €26.8m related to transactions.
That gap matters for anyone leaning on the improved margin. If such charges recur, the credibility of the adjusted progress weakens. Over the nine-month stretch, adjusted EBITDA nonetheless rose 23% to €99.7m — evidence of stronger underlying earning power, provided the adjusted and reported figures eventually converge.
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The market's reaction was swift. The shares were down 8.9% in the session covered by the NuWays analysis, with a decline of as much as 9.6% reported during the day — a reminder of how little support the stock found after the numbers.
A demanding fourth quarter stands between OHB and its guidance
Management left its full-year outlook untouched: total output of around €1.4bn for 2026 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.5–11.0%. Hitting those marks requires a strong finish. NuWays models fourth-quarter total output of roughly €454m, an 18% year-on-year increase, and adjusted EBITDA of €47–54m. Those are analyst projections, not achieved results, and the confirmed company guidance is the yardstick against which they will be judged.
Beyond the current year, the brokerage forecasts total output of €1.803bn for 2027 and adjusted EBITDA of €214m — figures that spell out the scale of growth being priced in, and that presuppose OHB can convert a larger project base into corresponding earnings.
Contract backlog underpins the growth case
Supporting that scenario is an order book of €3.94bn at the end of September 2026, including the IRIS² contract worth just under €1bn, which covers the development and construction of 18 satellites. NuWays identifies IRIS² and the Sentinel contracts as key growth drivers for the years ahead, with potential future defence orders adding further ballast to the medium-term outlook. The value of that base ultimately depends on how profitably OHB executes the programmes.
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A further possible catalyst is SATCOMBw 4. NuWays anticipates an order intake of €5–7bn in the first half of 2027, though both the size and the timing are the brokerage's expectations and an award has yet to be made.
For investors, the priority is execution on secured programmes and the quality of the earnings they generate. A major new contract could widen the horizon considerably — but only if OHB simultaneously demonstrates that growing volume translates into sustainably higher profits. The next operational test arrives with the fourth quarter.
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