Options Traders Bet Big on a SpaceX Recovery as $100 Billion Share Lock-Up Fails to Bite
Published on 08/07/2026 at 22:40 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The most telling signal about SpaceX's near-term trajectory isn't coming from the equity tape — it's coming from the derivatives market, where institutional players have placed unusually large wagers that the recent sell-off has run its course. Roughly $600 million in options changed hands on the stock, with $316 million of that total tied to puts. Notably, $166 million of those put contracts were sold rather than bought, a positioning pattern that suggests conviction in a floor forming beneath the share price.
Two trades stood out for their sheer size. One trader sold put options at a $90 strike for $12 million while simultaneously purchasing calls at $220 for $4.3 million, with both legs expiring in June 2027. A second position involved selling $75 puts for $3.5 million and buying $185 calls for $5 million, set to mature in January 2028. These risk-reversal structures are a classic bet on medium-term stabilization, and they arrive alongside implied volatility that has fallen to its lowest level since late June — a further indication that the panic selling phase is being priced out of the market.
A Lock-Up That Never Became a Flood
The positioning follows a pivotal week for the newly public company. Tuesday brought SpaceX's first quarterly report since its IPO, and the stock has gained 4.3 percent since. Thursday marked the expiration of the insider lock-up period, releasing roughly 911.5 million shares worth approximately $100 billion into the open market for the first time. The feared avalanche of insider selling never materialized; instead, buyers stepped in, and the shares have since climbed 14.0 percent.
In German trading on Friday, the stock jumped to €113.52, a gain of 14.03 percent on the day, extending the weekly recovery to 20.80 percent. The bounce has now erased nearly a quarter of the distance from Monday's yearly low. The numbers behind the move are compelling: second-quarter revenue surged 92 percent year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating the Wall Street consensus of $6.9 billion, while the reported loss per share came in well ahead of analyst expectations. Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million, and the company announced new AI contracts worth $14.1 billion. The net loss narrowed to $541 million, or 9 cents per share, compared to a $1 billion loss in the prior-year quarter — comfortably inside the analyst range that stretched from a loss of $1.26 per share to a gain of 33 cents. Adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion.
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The AI push carries a hefty price tag, however. Critics point to $18.37 billion in AI infrastructure investment that has driven the company into negative free cash flow. CFO Bret Johnsen has countered that SpaceX remains on track to hit a $100 billion annualized recurring revenue run rate by year-end.
The AI Constellation Takes Shape
The growth story is increasingly tied to a web of partnerships. SpaceX is working with Nvidia on a satellite computing payload called Starmind AI1, featuring Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, designed to run AI models directly in orbit. A deal with Google is expected to generate roughly $920 million per month in AI capacity deliveries. Anthropic has locked up the entire computing capacity of the Colossus-1 data center in Memphis, while AI firm Reflection AI is paying $150 million monthly for access to Nvidia's top-tier chips.
The week also delivered operational milestones. A Falcon 9 launched three Direct-to-Cell satellites for AST SpaceMobile from Cape Canaveral on Wednesday, with the first stage completing its 30th landing on the droneship "A Shortfall of Gravitas." It was the 90th Falcon 9 flight of the year. Astronomers also tracked a Falcon 9 upper stage impacting the moon at roughly 5,400 miles per hour that same day.
Analysts Split on the Fair Value Debate
Wall Street remains divided on where the stock goes from here. Argus Research's Steve Silver upgraded SpaceX from Hold to Buy on Friday with a $160 price target, arguing the massive AI investments will pay off long-term and cautioning against betting against Elon Musk. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sees the lock-up expiry as an entry point, calling SpaceX a potential "generational compounder" with a $300 target. Bernstein sits at $248, Citi at $200, leaving the consensus near $232 — still well above current Nasdaq levels.
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More Share Releases Loom
The first lock-up expiry is far from the last. Another 319 million shares become tradable on August 20, followed by 319 million on September 9, 59 million on September 10, and 328 million on September 24. By December 8, more than 4.6 billion shares will have been freed for trading. Musk's own stake remains locked until June 2027.
Institutional investors appear undeterred: Singapore's Temasek holds 9.8 million SpaceX shares valued at roughly $1.26 billion. The upcoming release dates will test whether the options market's bottoming thesis holds up against a steady drip of newly tradable supply. For now, the 30-day volatility reading of 84.59 percent is a reminder that this remains a stock prone to sharp swings in both directions.
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