Oracle's Rebound Masks a Founder's Fortune Crumbling in Real Time
Published on 08/02/2026 at 03:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of Oracle's current rally is deceptively simple: the stock climbed 11.31 percent last week and closed Friday at 112.60 euros, up 1.77 percent on the day. But context is everything. That same equity remains roughly 60 percent below its September 2025 record high of 280.70 euros, and the bounce has done little more than pull the shares 11.75 percent above a 52-week low of 100.76 euros set in late July 2026.
For Larry Ellison, the numbers are even more personal. The Oracle co-founder has shed roughly 69 billion dollars of his net worth in 2026 alone — the largest single-year loss of any billionaire tracked globally. His fortune now stands at 178 billion dollars, a fraction of the 400 billion-dollar peak he touched for a single day last September when Oracle's stock briefly made him the world's richest person, edging past Elon Musk's then-385 billion dollars. That reign lasted under 24 hours. Today, Musk is worth roughly four times as much, and the gap between the two men has become one of the most dramatic shifts in Bloomberg Billionaires Index history.
A rally with a catalyst — but no cure
Friday's gains trace back to a specific piece of news: Oracle confirmed an expanded partnership with Google Cloud, with Google's Gemini models moving directly into Oracle AI Agent Studio, the company's in-house toolkit for AI agents. The announcement landed amid already-buoyant sentiment across the cloud sector, following Microsoft's disclosure of 43 percent revenue growth at Azure and news of more than 130 billion dollars in new, unbooked data-center leasing commitments — pushing its total open obligations of that kind up 67.4 percent to 329.1 billion dollars.
It was a legitimate trigger for a relief rally, but it does nothing to address the balance-sheet concerns that drove the stock to its twelve-month low in the first place. The shares still trade about 21 percent below their 50-day moving average of 142.63 euros and nearly 28 percent under the 200-day average of 155.61 euros. The relative strength index sits at 43.2, indicating the stock is recovering from oversold territory — nothing more.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Oracle?
The debt problem that won't go away
The Google deal doesn't change the fundamental issue that has weighed on Oracle for months. While the company beat expectations in its most recent quarter, free cash flow remains negative. Oracle plans to raise an additional 40 billion dollars through debt and equity to fund data-center expansion, including an already-announced 20 billion-dollar capital increase. That comes on top of the 43 billion dollars in new debt and 5 billion dollars in fresh equity the company has already raised this fiscal year.
The scale of spending is staggering. Capital expenditures reached roughly 55.7 billion dollars in fiscal 2026, well above the original target of about 50 billion dollars. Even with operating cash flow up 54 percent to 32 billion dollars, Oracle produced a free-cash-flow shortfall of 23.7 billion dollars.
S&P has responded by cutting Oracle's credit rating to BBB-, just one notch above junk status. That downgrade is the point where Wall Street's enthusiasm collides with credit-market reality.
Backlog versus balance sheet
Bulls point to the company's enormous backlog: remaining performance obligations now total 638 billion dollars, up 85 billion dollars, with revenue growing 21 percent to 19.2 billion dollars. It's a multi-year revenue cushion that keeps the growth narrative alive.
The market, however, has chosen caution. The analyst consensus target of roughly 215.09 euros implies 91 percent upside from current levels — a gap that reflects uncertainty about timing more than conviction. With annualized volatility at 53.56 percent, sharp swings in both directions remain likely.
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The valuation picture is murkier still. Oracle trades at 14 times forward earnings, well below the sector median of 23 and its own five-year average of 22. Some see that as a bargain; others read it as the market pricing in real risk. Ellison, whose wealth is tied almost one-to-one to Oracle's share price — alongside stakes in Tesla and roughly 50 percent of Paramount Skydance — has felt every tick. On a single trading day, he lost 5.25 billion dollars. His cumulative losses from the September peak have at times exceeded 80.9 billion dollars.
Whether the stock reclaims its 50- and 200-day moving averages will say more about its actual strength than any partnership announcement. Until the massive investments translate into genuine free cash flow, the case for a sustainable recovery remains unproven — even with a $638 billion backlog keeping the long-term growth story alive.
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