PayPal Lifts 2026 Profit View as Revenue Miss Clouds the Quarter
Published on 10/27/2026 at 17:12 | Editorial boerse-global.de
PayPal gave investors a reason to cheer on the bottom line this week — and a reason to frown on the top line. The payments group raised its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to roughly $5.60 per share from about $5.38, even as quarterly revenue fell short of what the market had been looking for.
The upgraded guidance is the headline takeaway from the report. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter climbed 8% to $1.45, beating estimates, while GAAP EPS came in at $1.25. But the profit beat doesn't answer the more important question of how fast the business is actually growing.
Revenue lands below consensus
Third-quarter 2026 revenue reached $8.58 billion, against an LSEG-compiled estimate of $8.71 billion. Sales rose 2% year over year, and transaction margin in absolute terms also grew 2%, to $4.0 billion.
That gap explains why a profit beat alone doesn't add up to an unambiguously strong quarter. Earnings and revenue are telling different stories, and investors have to weigh both.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying PayPal?
The stock's reaction captured that tension. Shares gained 3.2% on the day, a move that sits awkwardly beside media reports of premarket weakness following the release, when the revenue shortfall weighed on sentiment. The advance is therefore hard to read as a clean endorsement of the quarter.
Two analysts, two directions
Sell-side opinion has been split. Truist lifted its price target on PayPal on Friday to $58 from $53, keeping a "Hold" rating — a higher target, but not a fresh buy call. Cleveland Research took a harsher line on October 19, cutting the stock to "Underperform" from "Neutral" on industry checks pointing to weaker quarterly trends than expected, along with market-share losses and macroeconomic pressure.
BofA Securities had already weighed in on October 15, initiating coverage with a sell rating. The bank warned that scaling back price subsidies on Braintree could weaken usage of the branded PayPal checkout and push large merchants toward cheaper rivals.
LianLian deal widens the payout rails
Against that backdrop, PayPal is pressing ahead on the business-development front. Its newly disclosed partnership with LianLian Global, announced Friday, opens international payout routes for customers in online commerce and the platform economy.
The arrangement lets LianLian Global clients disburse funds to PayPal accounts worldwide and to Venmo accounts in the U.S. It targets social commerce companies, marketplaces and other e-commerce players, with intended recipients including content creators, influencers, developers and contractors. The emphasis is on paying the people who work for platforms and merchants rather than on checkout at the point of sale.
Geography matters here: PayPal accounts are covered globally, but Venmo access is limited to the U.S. A separate integration with Glance takes a different tack, pairing AI-assisted shopping with an embedded PayPal payment flow for Glance users in the U.S. — one deal on the payout side, the other at the point of purchase.
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Lores pushes a flatter organization
Alongside the partnership build-out, CEO Enrique Lores is driving an internal overhaul. According to media reports, he called on October 20 for faster decisions, clearer accountability and fewer management layers, and PayPal has begun cutting jobs.
The restructuring lands as analysts question the underlying trajectory. Cleveland Research's downgrade cited industry surveys suggesting business trends would likely undershoot expectations, with market-share erosion and macro headwinds as drags. BofA's concern runs along a similar fault line: how PayPal can generate additional usage without damaging existing customer relationships through changed terms.
The LianLian tie-up adds concrete ways for customers to use the network, but it doesn't directly address the competitive and pricing risks the analysts have flagged. For PayPal, expanding the franchise and shoring up the core offering remain two separate jobs — and the raised profit outlook is progress on the earnings side, not proof that growth has already accelerated.
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