Petrobras Opens Biometan Tender as Traders Weigh Record Output Against a Softening Oil Tape
Published on 10/30/2026 at 16:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Petrobras has fired the starting gun on a non-binding tender for biometan and origin certificates, a move that positions the state-controlled oil major for obligations under Brazil's "Fuel of the Future" law. Deliveries are slated to begin in 2027. The solicitation covers both the physical fuel and separately offered CGOB certificates, with contracts for biometan running up to 10 years while certificate-only offers are capped at 2 years.
Projects already in operation or still under development are eligible to take part, and supply can come from various locations across Brazil. The biometan is intended to replace part of the natural gas Petrobras burns at refineries and industrial facilities.
The non-binding nature of the exercise matters for how investors should read it. Launching the tender does not mean a supply contract has been signed; Petrobras is simply gathering proposals to map out future procurement options. No firm long-term offtake commitment can be inferred from the planned contract terms alone.
A National Mandate, Not a Petrobras Target
The initial national procurement requirement stands at 504,000 cubic meters per day. That figure applies to all obligated market participants combined and is explicitly not an individual volume obligation for Petrobras. Regulator ANP has yet to determine what share falls to the company.
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Two tracks therefore run in parallel: Petrobras is preparing procurement now, while the company-specific regulatory requirement remains undecided. Preliminary individual targets for 2027 are expected in December 2026, with the final ruling due in March 2027 — meaning the purchasing process kicks off before that regulatory procedure wraps up.
Suppliers face a two-step calendar. Registration and participation requests are open until December 11, with bids accepted from December 14 to December 22. A contract award is a separate, later stage entirely.
Output at a Record, but the Tape Has Turned
The tender lands against a far less comfortable market backdrop. Petrobras shares fell 4.6% in the previous session as hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East weighed on crude prices and, by extension, Brazilian energy names. That environment does not fully explain the share move, but it does show why good company news alone is not enough to justify a re-rating right now.
Operationally, there is plenty to point to. In its third-quarter 2026 production and sales report, Petrobras booked average own oil and gas output of 3.512 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 11.7% year on year. The company credited new platforms in the deep pre-salt layers, better operating efficiency and fewer maintenance stoppages for the increase — concrete operational changes behind the volume growth.
Whether those extra barrels translate into earnings is the open question. With crude prices softening, the test is whether higher volumes can offset price pressure — something the coming financials will have to demonstrate rather than assume.
Morpho Adds a Perspective, Not a Payday
Petrobras also reported another oil-bearing layer at the Morpho well off Amapá. Drilling and geological data collection are complete, but the company disclosed no resource volumes and confirmed no commercial viability. Anyone betting on the find is pricing a chance whose economic scale is still unknown.
A separate, more tangible item: according to media reports, Petrobras bought one million barrels of state-owned oil from the Búzios field at a PPSA auction. Loading of the cargo from the P-75 and P-77 platforms is scheduled for the first half of December. The auction concerns a planned shipment from an existing field, while Morpho opens a production perspective that has yet to be valued — the two should not be conflated.
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Valuation Hurdles Mount
The bear case is just as concrete. Further declines in crude could cap the benefit of higher output, and the economic assessment of Morpho could fall short of expectations. An oil-bearing layer says nothing about the size of a recoverable deposit or its profitability.
Bradesco BBI took a more cautious view on Monday following Lula's election victory, cutting its price target for Petrobras preferred shares through end-2027 to R$55 from R$62. The rating stayed above-average positive, but the broker raised its assumed required dividend yield to 10% from 8% — a signal of higher demands on the stock's payout appeal that tempers the upbeat recommendation.
Reuters reported on Monday that Brazilian assets saw selling after Lula's re-election, as investors unwound bets on a political rightward shift and reassessed fiscal prospects. That backdrop shapes risk perception but does not by itself prove any change in Petrobras' business policy.
The Next Hard Data Point
The announced third-quarter 2026 financial results, due November 10 after the market close, with the earnings presentation on November 11, are the next concrete checkpoint. Those dates can sharpen the financial reading of the production trend; no confirmation of Morpho's commercial viability has been scheduled. For a durable re-rating, investors need to track two things separately: the earning power of the existing business and the economic proof behind the new exploration opportunity.
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