Petrobras Sinks 14% as Lula Victory Unwinds Election Trades
Published on 10/26/2026 at 14:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Petrobras shares fell 14% on Monday as investors scrambled to reverse wagers on a change of government in Brazil, with the state-controlled oil producer caught in a broader selloff across Brazilian equities. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won yesterday's presidential vote, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro — the candidate many market participants had backed. Media reports also pointed to fiscal policy concerns weighing on Brazilian stocks, even as the wider US market edged higher.
The slump stands in sharp contrast to the stock's performance just days earlier, when Petrobras climbed 3.3% on Friday amid rising crude prices. That advance came as the news agency linked pressure on the broader market to the oil price move.
Analyst Sees Production Growth Outweighing Politics
Bank of America raised its price target on Petrobras on October 14 to $28 from $22, reaffirming its buy rating. Analyst Leonardo Marcondes pointed to expected production growth that should outpace peers, along with industry-leading generation of free cash flow. In his view, the investment case extends beyond political questions.
Concrete progress on that production build-out came with the platform P-82, which has left Singapore bound for the Búzios field, according to company statements. The unit is scheduled to begin operations in 2027.
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Contract Wins and Cost Settlements
On Thursday, 4Subsea secured a framework agreement with Petrobras for specialized engineering services, covering riser analysis and material fatigue studies. The work spans drilling, well completion, overhaul operations and decommissioning.
Petrobras had also signed cost and volume equalization agreements with Shell, TotalEnergies and Petrogal on October 13, covering the shared Berbigão and Sururu reservoirs. Separately, the company reported receiving further installments from Brazil's economic subsidy programs for gasoline and diesel.
Reporting Calendar Takes Shape
The next confirmed date is October 28, when Petrobras will release its production and sales report for the third quarter of 2026 after the market closes. Third-quarter financial results are due on November 10 under the announced schedule, also after the close, with a webcast to explain the figures set for November 11.
Petrobras at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A date is also fixed for Brazil's gas release program: the public hearing is scheduled for November 19. Petrobras said it viewed the postponement positively.
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