Poste's €13.4bn Telecom Italia Bid Gathers Momentum as Operator Posts Return to Profit
Published on 08/07/2026 at 16:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell a story of convergence. On one side sits a tender offer that has swelled in value from €10.8bn to €13.4bn as share prices have firmed. On the other, an operating turnaround that saw Telecom Italia swing back into the black during the second quarter. Together, they frame the central question for shareholders: is the price on the table fair, and does the underlying business justify holding out for more?
The acceptance window for Poste Italiane's voluntary public exchange offer — open since 20 July and running until 11 September — is now in its decisive phase. Shareholders are being offered €1.67 in cash plus 0.218 newly issued Poste shares for every Telecom Italia ordinary share, a package the TIM board unanimously deemed financially adequate on 18 July. That endorsement was underpinned by fairness opinions from Evercore Partners International LLP and Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, while Intermonte subsequently slapped a "Tender" rating on the stock on 22 July — a designation aimed squarely at the offer dynamics rather than standalone fundamentals.
The Turnaround Underpinning the Bid
The financials released on 29 July make clear why Poste sees value here. Second-quarter revenue climbed 5.7% year-on-year to €3.5bn, while net profit reached €88m — a dramatic reversal from the €292m net loss booked in the first quarter and an improvement on the €8m loss recorded in the year-earlier period. EBITDA after leasing costs rose 4.5% to €998m, marginally ahead of the €995m consensus estimate cited by Reuters.
The growth engine is running on multiple cylinders. Domestic revenues have returned to expansion, with TIM Brasil contributing a 5.5% uptick and TIM Enterprise advancing 7.9%. Management used the results to reaffirm its 2026/2027 industrial plan, and analysts responded by lifting their consensus earnings-per-share estimate for 2026 to €0.151 from €0.125, according to media reports.
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The half-year picture reinforces the recovery narrative. Group revenue reached €6.8bn, up 2% year-on-year — or 3.3% when adjusted for the MVNO business — while EBITDA after leasing costs grew 1.2% to €1.8bn, or 6.3% on a like-for-like basis. The company has guided for full-year EBITDA after leasing costs to expand 5–6% in 2026, with capital expenditure held below 14% of revenue.
Debt, Legal Wrinkles, and a Climate Pledge
Balance-sheet discipline remains a watchpoint. Net debt stood at €7.3bn at the end of the reporting period, translating to a leverage ratio of 1.94 — a metric that matters all the more given the pending change of control. S&P Global Ratings recognised the progress in early June, upgrading the credit rating to 'BB+' from 'BB' with a stable outlook, citing deleveraging and reliable delivery against corporate forecasts.
Not everything is running smoothly. On 21 July, a Milan court ruled against Telecom Italia in a dispute with FiberCop — the network company sold to KKR in 2024 — over the economic access terms of the underlying Master Service Agreement. Three days earlier, however, the same court rejected INWIT's request for interim relief against TIM, validating the operator's withdrawal from a separate Master Service Agreement. These parallel proceedings underscore how deeply the group's former network structures remain entangled in litigation, a consideration that will outlast any ownership transition.
The company has also been active on the corporate front. The first tranche of its share buyback programme concluded on 23 July, hitting its target of 14 million shares. On 3 August, TIM unveiled its climate transition plan, outlining strategies to curb the environmental footprint of digital technologies. That announcement follows April's shareholder approval of a 1-for-10 share split and the mandatory conversion of preference shares into ordinary shares — structural moves that simplified the capital base ahead of the offer.
Reading the Tape
The market's verdict is cautiously constructive. The stock closed Thursday at €7.61, and while the seven-day gain of 3.47% trails the 4.16% weekly advance recorded on Friday — when the shares traded at €7.66, up 0.67% on the day — the month-on-month decline of 5.68% suggests the recent bounce has yet to recoup earlier losses. Market capitalisation stands at €16.11bn.
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A notable insider transaction adds colour: on 21 July, Paolo D'Andrea sold 16,031 ordinary shares at €7.69 each — roughly €123,251.54 in total — in a sell-to-cover operation tied to incentive plans, a routine disposal that carries little signal value.
The decisive variable remains take-up. Poste needs a majority stake to complete the acquisition as planned, and the clock is ticking toward the 11 September deadline. The improving operational metrics give shareholders a reason to engage with the offer on its merits — and provide Poste with evidence that its valuation of the business is grounded in substance rather than aspiration.
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