Rare Earth ETF's 41% Plunge Masks Record Output From Its Top Holdings
Published on 07/30/2026 at 16:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The VanEck Rare Earth ETF closed at €11.03 on Wednesday, extending a slide that has wiped 27.12% off the fund in just 30 days. The decline looks even more punishing from a longer perspective: the ETF now trades 41.23% below its 52-week high of €18.76, reached in May.
Yet the portfolio's heaviest-weighted miners are churning out record numbers.
Pilbara and MinRes Deliver Blockbuster Quarters
Pilbara Minerals, one of the fund's largest positions, reported on July 29 that spodumene concentrate production hit 879,500 tonnes for the fiscal year — a 17% increase that exceeded the company's own guidance. Revenue in the June quarter jumped 31% to A$743 million, fueled by higher realized prices. The average price per tonne reached US$2,107, up 13% from the prior quarter. Pilbara closed the period with A$2.29 billion in cash.
Mineral Resources followed with its own record-breaking quarterly update. The Australian miner posted all-time highs across lithium, iron ore and mining services. Fourth-quarter lithium sales hit 158,000 dry tonnes of spodumene concentrate at an average price of US$2,425 per tonne — a 15% sequential price gain. Net debt fell to roughly A$4.3 billion, supported by solid free cash flow, while total liquidity stood at A$2.4 billion as of June 30.
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The market rewarded MinRes shares with a 4.19% gain the day after its report. Pilbara's stock also moved higher.
IGO Limited painted a more complicated picture. Quarterly revenue rose 18% to A$141 million, but the company confirmed it will exit the Nova nickel project once mining concludes in the fourth quarter of 2026, drawing attention to operational headwinds.
Beijing Tightens the Screws
The sector faces fresh headwinds from China. Since July 1, Beijing has enforced stricter export controls on rare earths and, more recently, launched a program encouraging whistleblowers to report violations of those controls. The measures inject new uncertainty into global supply chains, particularly for buyers outside China.
The regulatory pressure coincides with a new competitive threat on the product side. Deka Investment registered a new ETF for rare earths and strategic metals with BaFin in late July. The fund will compete directly for capital that currently flows into the VanEck product, which manages roughly US$1.2 billion.
Deeply Oversold, But No Bounce Yet
The technical picture is extreme. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 21.5, deep in oversold territory. A reading below 30 typically signals that a security may be due for a reversal.
VanEck Seltene Erden ETF at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The disconnect between operational strength at the underlying holdings and the ETF's price action is stark. The fund is down 11.41% year to date, even as its top constituents report record production volumes and improving pricing.
Investors will watch closely when MP Materials reports quarterly results on August 6, looking for signs that the fundamental strength in rare earth mining can eventually pull the ETF out of its technical tailspin.
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