Rheinmetall's €12.4 Billion Boxer Bet Lands in Parliament as the Stock Sits 36% Down for the Year
Published on 09/27/2026 at 05:00 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall has spent September doing what it does best: stacking up artillery contracts. On September 18 the DĂĽsseldorf-based defense group booked yet another order for 155mm ammunition from an international customer, covering a five-digit quantity of shells and valued in the low triple-digit millions of euros. Deliveries are scheduled to run through the end of 2027. It was the company's second major artillery munitions win of the month, following a large order reported in mid-September.
Those fresh wins sit awkwardly beside a trimmed full-year outlook and mounting questions about how quickly Rheinmetall can convert its order book into cash.
A stock that has lost more than a third of its value
The market's verdict has been blunt. Rheinmetall closed last Friday at €986.60, down 36% since the start of the year and roughly 27% below its 200-day moving average. Investors are increasingly weighing red-hot demand for defense equipment against execution risk and balance-sheet strain — delays on the Waffenträger project and pressure on free cash flow are central to that debate, compounded by sector-wide profit-taking that has sapped appetite for further gains.
The caution marks a shift in emphasis: profitability and dependable deliveries now matter more than headline order intake. Building out capacity and carrying heavy inventories demands disciplined capital allocation, and the market is watching closely.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Fundamentals that still look formidable
None of that erases the underlying picture. Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 climbed 69% year on year to €3.289 billion, up from €2.43 billion a year earlier. Operating profit rose 115% to €562 million, a margin of 17.1%. The total order backlog stood at more than €80 billion at the end of the quarter.
Long-term demand is anchored in ammunition and modern air-defense systems, as governments refill stockpiles and hand out multi-year contracts. Among the largest commitments is a €5.7 billion deal with Romania covering combat vehicles, munitions and air-defense systems, with deliveries slated for 2028 to 2030.
Management has been buying its own story too: CEO Armin Papperger and other board members acquired shares through more than 15 transactions worth roughly €17.4 million in total.
Boxer program heads to the Bundestag
The next real test of future utilization arrives in December. On December 9, the German Bundestag is due to debate the Arminius program for Boxer wheeled armored vehicles. Rheinmetall expects the procurement package to generate vehicle volume of about €12.4 billion plus a service contract worth some €2 billion. A binding signature is targeted just days after a positive parliamentary vote.
Contractual options could lift the Boxer opportunity considerably higher — potentially adding as much as €77 billion in additional volume, according to the company.
Analysts split ahead of November
Opinion on the shares is divided. mwb research rates the stock "Hold" with a price target of €1,050, while Bernstein sees up to €1,900. Concrete answers on capacity and cash flow are expected on November 5, 2026, when quarterly figures are published, and at the capital markets day scheduled for November.
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