Rheinmetall's Strong Quarter Meets a Softer Year as Arminius Slips
Published on 11/05/2026 at 03:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Rheinmetall's third-quarter operating result jumped 62% year on year to €553 million, the defence group's preliminary figures show — a performance that nonetheless failed to shield the stock, which closed Wednesday down 5.7% after management trimmed its full-year guidance.
Revenue for the three months to the end of September 2026 came in at €3.149 billion, up from €2.308 billion a year earlier, while the operating margin widened to 17.5% from 14.8%. Incoming orders reached €2.893 billion. Operating free cash flow, by contrast, was negative at €82 million.
The quarterly report lands on 5 November 2026, and consensus had pointed higher on both lines: analysts surveyed in the media were looking for revenue of €3.25 billion and operating profit of €531 million. A conference call is scheduled for 14:00.
Guidance Trimmed on Order Timing
The cut to the outlook centres on scheduling rather than demand. Rheinmetall now expects 2026 revenue of around €13.2 billion, down from a previous range of €13.7 billion to €14.2 billion, and sees an operating margin of roughly 18.5% instead of about 19%.
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Management attributed the revision to likely delays in the award of the Boxer programme Arminius and to later lot approvals for artillery ammunition. Revenue and advance payments tied to those contracts are shifting into 2027, the company said.
That timing question has been the focus of sell-side scrutiny. Berenberg's George McWhirter reiterated a "Hold" rating and a €1,020 price target on Wednesday, cautioning that a delay to the large Boxer order would put Rheinmetall's order intake target for 2026 at risk. Missing advance payments, he added, could weigh on free cash flow by as much as roughly €3 billion. A report had suggested the German bulk order may now be placed in February 2027 rather than early December as previously expected, pushing both order intake and prepayments into next year. Rheinmetall has not confirmed that possible shift.
Jefferies, for its part, kept its "Buy" rating and €1,350 target unchanged on Monday ahead of the print. The shares were trading at €1,006.80.
Deliveries and Capacity Advance
Away from the order book, Rheinmetall has kept up a steady flow of operational announcements. On 29 October the procurement agency OCCAR tasked Artec — the joint venture of Rheinmetall and KNDS Deutschland — with supplying a further 35 Schakal wheeled armoured vehicles to Germany and 34 to the Netherlands. Rheinmetall's share of the order is in the low three-digit millions of euros. The same day, Rheinmetall Landsysteme and Rheinmetall Defence Nederland handed over the first series-production Caracal vehicles to the German and Dutch armed forces.
Capacity is expanding too. On 22 October the company opened the UK Gun Hall in Telford, dedicated to manufacturing large-calibre weapons.
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One cloud came from the site of its future headquarters: three construction machines burned at the Kassel-Calden airport site in the night to Friday. Police suspected arson and were examining a claim of responsibility published online.
Investors have a further date to mark. Rheinmetall has scheduled a Capital Markets Day for 26 November 2026, following the quarterly publication.
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