SAP Pursues a Dedicated AI Yardstick as Cloud Bookings Swell and Broker Targets Climb
Published on 10/22/2026 at 18:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SAP shares advanced 2.5% today, lifted by a pair of broker upgrades and a quarterly report card that showed the Walldorf software group firing on more than one cylinder. Deutsche Bank Research and Berenberg both raised their price targets and reiterated Buy ratings, while investors weighed a separate question hanging over the stock: how to put a number on the contribution artificial intelligence actually makes to the business.
Finance chief Dominik Asam confirmed in comments to Dow Jones that SAP is working intensively on metrics designed to make that contribution visible, and to allow comparisons with large US peers. He was clear that no such figure could be isolated for the third quarter. Nor should shareholders expect a quick launch — Asam said the new measures will only be introduced once they have been carefully defined, and that a mid-year rollout is not on the cards.
Cloud Momentum Carries the Quarter
The operating numbers behind today's gains were robust. Cloud revenue climbed 26% in the third quarter of 2026, while the Current Cloud Backlog — the contracted cloud sales expected over the coming twelve months — rose 28%. Total revenue reached €10.27 billion, up 13% year on year, and the backlog stood at €24.1 billion. Non-IFRS operating profit increased 18% to €3.03 billion, outpacing the top line.
That combination — faster cloud growth than the group average, a swelling order book and disproportionate profit expansion — gives the bullish broker calls something concrete to stand on. Deutsche Bank lifted its target to €235 from €200, with analyst Johannes Schaller arguing that the "Autonomous Enterprise" offering is gaining commercial traction and should, in his view, put an end to the debate about AI cannibalising SAP's software for the foreseeable future. Berenberg moved its target to €240 from €205. Both houses kept their Buy ratings.
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A Missing Metric
What the quarter could not deliver was a standalone AI figure. That gap sits at the heart of the current discussion. Management describes artificial intelligence as a driver of customer demand, yet the Current Cloud Backlog — the yardstick investors watch most closely — shows the trajectory of the cloud business without answering how much extra economic value AI offerings generate. Baader took issue with the lack of transparency and pressed for hard data in next year's annual report, a demand aimed at verifiable business figures rather than descriptions of rising AI demand.
The two assessments frame the AI story from opposite ends: the commercial potential may convince, but its precise financial measurement is still pending. Any new metric would therefore need to do more than illustrate growth — it would have to support credible comparisons.
Customers Ask Where the Models Come From
Client priorities are shifting at the same time. Asam told Reuters that companies are increasingly asking about the origin and data processing of the AI models on offer, with export controls and Europe's push for digital sovereignty shaping their decisions. SAP integrates more than 70 models from various providers rather than building its own, a strategy intended to serve customers across different regions and requirements.
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Model selection and provenance therefore feed into purchasing decisions alongside demand for new features. Until SAP's planned metrics arrive, the distinction between strong cloud growth and separately measurable AI success will remain the key reference point for investors trying to value the franchise.
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