SAP's 22.9-Billion-Euro Cloud Backlog Meets a Two-Front Legal All-Clear
Published on 08/02/2026 at 20:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The regulatory clouds that hung over SAP have parted just as the software giant's order book hits a fresh milestone. Germany's Federal Cartel Office closed its preliminary probe into the company on July 30, 2026, declining to open a formal abuse-of-dominance case — a week after the EU Commission settled its own proceedings through binding commitments from SAP. The twin reprieves helped the stock close Friday at €159.40, up 1.65 percent, though the shares remain 23.91 percent in the red year-to-date.
A Record Backlog, A Thinner Margin
The legal clarity arrived alongside numbers that tell a more complicated story. When SAP reported second-quarter results on July 23, the current cloud backlog — contracted future cloud revenue — had jumped 27 percent to €22.9 billion. Ongoing cloud revenue grew 22 percent, or 24 percent in currency-adjusted terms. Yet operating profit on a non-IFRS basis rose just 7 percent, a pace that trails revenue growth by a wide margin.
The drag comes from the company's own shopping spree. SAP completed its acquisition of Dremio in early July, folding the data lakehouse specialist into its Business Technology Platform, and closed the purchase of Prior Labs on July 17. Both deals dilute earnings in the near term, forcing management to trim its full-year operating profit forecast even as it reaffirms the strategic bet on AI-driven data analytics.
Buybacks and the Analyst Divide
The market's response to this tension has been anything but uniform. On July 24, DZ Bank cut its fair value for the stock from €130 to €120, keeping a "Sell" rating; analyst Armin Kremser argued SAP would need to accelerate profit growth sharply in the second half to hit its 2026 targets. Three days later, JPMorgan set a price target of €175 and UBS came in at €164 — a spread that captures the central uncertainty: can cloud momentum outrun the margin dilution from recent acquisitions?
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
SAP is meanwhile pressing ahead with its capital return program. The second tranche of the buyback announced in January — a scheme worth up to €10 billion in total — launched on July 27, with plans to repurchase up to €2.6 billion of shares by January 27, 2027. A July 31 correction to a voting-rights notification from July 21 regarding institutional holdings was procedural and had no immediate market impact.
Chart Wars: Recovery Versus Resistance
The technical picture has brightened considerably, even if the longer-term trend remains contested. Over the past 30 trading sessions, the stock has gained 13.45 percent, climbing more than a quarter off its 52-week low of €127.52, set on July 23. The shares now trade 10.32 percent above their 50-day moving average of €144.49 and have cleared the 100-day line at €147.05. The relative strength index sits at 64.1 — elevated but not yet in overbought territory.
The bearish camp points to the 200-day average at €174.67, a level the stock still trails by 8.74 percent, confirming the broader downtrend. From the 52-week high of €258.60, reached in late July 2025, the shares remain 38.36 percent lower. Annualized volatility of 49.19 percent underscores how turbulent the ride has been.
What Happens Next
The bulls lean on the structural case: customers running older on-premise software face a support deadline in 2027, which should accelerate cloud migration. Strong quarterly results from U.S. hyperscalers like Amazon's AWS have also reinforced demand for cloud infrastructure. The bears counter that AI investment has yet to deliver the productivity gains companies hoped for — a "AI fatigue" scenario that could prompt budget cuts and brake SAP's cloud growth.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the immediate test is whether the stock can hold above the 50-day average at €144.49. A sustained move near Friday's close of €159.40 would set up another attempt at the 200-day line. A drop below the 100-day average at €147.05, however, could reopen the path toward the year's low.
Two dates matter for the autumn. The DSAG annual congress in Cologne runs October 6-8, where SAP traditionally discusses cloud strategy with customers and partners. Third-quarter figures are scheduled for October 21. Between now and then, the debate over whether Friday's gains mark a durable turnaround — or merely a reprieve — will be settled by data on global IT spending and further signals from the tech sector.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 2 August
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
