SAP's €24.1 Billion Backlog Draws a Higher Goldman Target, While a Pool Dissolution Reshapes the Ownership Register
Published on 10/24/2026 at 18:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs has raised its price target on SAP from €230 to €258 and reiterated its buy recommendation, according to media reports, with analyst Mohammed Moawalla pointing to the sustained strength of the company's Current Cloud Backlog. The move came a day after the software group's third-quarter 2026 results, which showed that backlog climbing 28% to €24.1 billion.
That order indicator sits at the heart of the bullish case, but it is not the same thing as revenue already booked. A growing backlog lifts expectations for future income; it does not translate directly into reported sales or profit. The distinction matters because SAP's actual cloud revenue reached €6.668 billion in the quarter, up 26%, while total revenue advanced 13%.
Operating profit, measured under both IFRS and non-IFRS, rose 18% — a solid gain, though one that trailed the percentage growth in cloud revenue. How that order momentum converts into the bottom line is the question the next set of figures will have to answer.
Guidance Raised, With a Date to Check It
Alongside the quarterly release on Wednesday, SAP lifted its outlook for cloud revenue and for combined cloud and software revenue. For 2026, management expects cloud revenue at the upper end of a range of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion at constant currencies. That forecast gives investors a concrete yardstick, and the fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 numbers — scheduled for release on 28 January 2027 — will show whether the elevated expectations are met.
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Buyback Presses On
Separately, SAP's capital-market disclosure published on Tuesday reported the acquisition of 48,222 of its own shares. Including purchases through 16 October, the current buyback programme has reached a total of 9,044,108 shares. The prior notice had already flagged further buying, with 50,000 shares acquired between 5 and 9 October — evidence the programme has continued across consecutive reporting weeks.
For investors, the buyback disclosure documents actual share purchases by the company. On its own, it says nothing new about business growth or whether the stock is fairly valued.
A Pool Dissolution, Not a Exit
The voting-rights filings tell a different story, and one that is easy to misread. The decisive background to the lower reported stakes is the dissolution of a voting-rights pool, which changed how holdings are attributed. Dietmar Hopp's reported voting share fell from 5.04% to 4.49%, with the threshold crossed on 13 October. Notices concerning other shareholders were likewise tied to the pool's breakup.
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Lower percentages in these disclosures should therefore not be read across the board as a retreat from SAP. What counts is the stated reason for the change, not merely the direction of the number.
Three Threads, Three Questions
The week's news bundles together items that answer entirely different questions. The buyback concerns SAP's own shares. The pool dissolution concerns how voting rights are reported. The quarterly results and the raised guidance concern the operating business — and carry the most weight for any fundamental assessment of the stock. A continued repurchase programme is no substitute for scrutinising that performance, and falling voting percentages after a pool dissolution are no proof of share sales.
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