SAP's Buyback Engine Keeps Humming While Analysts Spar Over Q3 Bar
Published on 09/26/2026 at 11:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SAP heads into its third-quarter report with the market's yardstick set noticeably higher than in previous periods, and the analyst community is far from unanimous on whether the Walldorf software maker can clear it. The stock finished Friday's session at EUR 185.06, a modest 0.6% gain that capped a week of conflicting signals.
Two Houses, Two Verdicts
Jefferies moved first, with analyst Charles Brennan lifting his price target to EUR 220 from EUR 210 on Tuesday while keeping a Buy rating. Brennan sees room for further upside in the fundamental story ahead of the quarterly release.
JPMorgan's Toby Ogg took the opposite tack the same day, reaffirming a Neutral stance and a EUR 175 target. In Ogg's view, the numbers should land roughly in line with expectations — but the bar SAP now has to clear sits materially higher than in earlier quarters, leaving the valuation looking stretched in the near term. Bank of America added its own wrinkle on Thursday, flagging a possible "controlled slowdown" in third-quarter order intake. The bank nonetheless stuck with its Buy rating, though the note was enough to pressure the shares during Xetra trading before the stock recovered into the weekend.
Buybacks Run at Full Tilt
While the analysts argue, SAP's management is quietly shrinking the share count. Regulatory disclosures tied to the running 2026 buyback program show the company repurchased 50,000 of its own shares on Xetra between September 14 and 18. That marked a sharp step down from the prior week, when 1,823,857 shares changed hands under the program between September 7 and 11.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Cumulatively, SAP has now bought back 8,305,886 shares through September 18. The steady purchases on the Xetra platform provide a continuous source of demand and gradually reduce the number of shares in free float.
Product Pipeline Keeps Moving
The buyback isn't the only lever being pulled. SAP confirmed on September 16 that its Ariba Spend Analysis and Insights solution is now available, extending the company's offerings even as market debate over booking momentum intensifies.
Chart Check Ahead of the Print
Technically, the picture is mixed. The stock trades 24% below its 52-week high of EUR 242.00, yet it holds above its 200-day moving average of EUR 166.95 — a level that underpins the broader recovery trend of recent months.
The Date That Matters
Clarity arrives on October 21, when SAP publishes its third-quarter 2026 financial results at approximately 22:05 MESZ. Management will walk through the figures on a conference call at 23:00 MESZ. Only then will it become clear whether concerns about a bookings slowdown were warranted — or whether the bulls at Jefferies read the quarter right.
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