SAP's Buyback Machine and a Regulatory All-Clear: Why the Market Is Warming to the Software Giant
Published on 08/05/2026 at 03:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The antitrust cloud that has hovered over SAP SE for months has dissipated. Germany's Federal Cartel Office has closed its preliminary investigation into the Walldorf-based software group without imposing any conditions, following complaints from rivals — including process-mining specialist Celonis — over alleged data-access abuses and the improper bundling of the Signavio product. According to Handelsblatt, the allegations did not hold up under scrutiny. The decision removes a nagging regulatory overhang that had cast a shadow over SAP's cloud ambitions.
Investors wasted little time rewarding the news. SAP shares climbed 1.49 percent on the day to €167.46, extending a rally that has now delivered a 19.07 percent gain over the past month. The previous session had already set the tone, with strong cloud results from US partners Microsoft and Amazon — whose Azure and AWS growth rates point to a healthy enterprise-software investment cycle — providing an additional tailwind.
Buybacks and insider conviction
The regulatory all-clear landed on the same day SAP published its first interim update on the 2026 share buyback programme. Between 27 and 31 July, the company repurchased 2,184,430 of its own shares on the Xetra exchange at a weighted average price of €157.62, for a total outlay of approximately €344.3 million. Notably, those purchases were executed well below the current trading level.
Insider activity has reinforced the sense of management conviction. Chief executive Christian Klein bought SAP shares worth €325,219 at an average price of €133.60 on 24 July — the day after the second-quarter results landed and at a time when the stock was still trading meaningfully below today's levels. Meanwhile, anchor shareholder Harald Tschira increased his voting-rights stake via voting agreements from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent, according to a regulatory filing.
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Cloud momentum intact, but the margin story needs watching
The fundamental backdrop remains the second-quarter numbers published on 23 July. Cloud revenue advanced 22 percent — or 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis — to €6.28 billion. The current cloud backlog, a key forward-looking indicator that captures contracted but not yet recognised revenue, jumped 27 percent to a record €22.9 billion. Non-IFRS operating profit grew 7 percent to €2.74 billion, while IFRS earnings per share rose to €1.89 from €1.46 a year earlier.
Yet the headline strength came with a caveat. SAP trimmed its full-year guidance for non-IFRS operating profit to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from the previous €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion. Management attributed the adjustment to dilution effects from the July acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs — deals that strategically complement the cloud and data portfolio, even if they complicate the near-term cost picture.
Analysts trim targets but keep the faith
The earnings aftermath produced a wave of price-target cuts across the Street, though none of the banks questioned their positive stance. Goldman Sachs lowered its target from €230 to €215 on 27 July, maintaining a "Buy" rating after a detailed review of second-quarter margin trends. Barclays followed the next day, trimming from €255 to €220 while keeping an "Overweight" call, citing short-term cost uncertainty despite convincing revenue momentum. Berenberg also reduced its target on 27 July, from €215 to €205, on adjusted margin assumptions tied to a higher cost base, while holding its "Buy" recommendation.
The takeaway is nuanced: analysts have pulled back their price objectives across the board, but the constructive view on the equity itself remains intact. The record cloud backlog, in particular, continues to underpin revenue visibility for quarters to come.
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A stock in recovery mode
The market's mood has shifted markedly since the summer doldrums. SAP shares closed at €168.80 on Tuesday, up 2.18 percent on the day, and have gained roughly 20 percent over the past 30 days. That marks a decisive move off the 52-week low of €127.52 hit in late July, though the stock still sits well below its record high of €257.70 from August of last year.
The combination of operational progress in the cloud business, the ongoing buyback programme, insider purchases and now the regulatory all-clear paints a constructive picture. The next milestone for investors arrives on 21 October, when SAP reports third-quarter results — with the trajectory of the cloud backlog likely to remain the focal point for those gauging the sustainability of the current rebound.
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