SAP's Buyback Timing Looks Prescient as Antitrust Cloud Lifts and Insiders Add to Stakes
Published on 08/05/2026 at 05:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The software giant's share repurchase program has proven well-timed, with the company snapping up stock at prices that now look distinctly cheap. Between July 27 and 31, SAP acquired 2,184,430 of its own shares on the Xetra exchange at a weighted average price of €157.62, for a total outlay of €344.3 million. The purchases clustered around the stock's 52-week low, which was touched on July 23 — and the shares have since climbed 32.37 percent from that trough.
The daily breakdown shows how the buyback was executed across a range of prices. On July 27, SAP paid €144.82 per share for just 79,424 shares; the following day the price was €153.40. By July 29, the company had stepped up its activity, acquiring 647,000 shares at €160.59, before the final tranche on July 31 went through at €156.23. With the stock closing at €168.80 on Tuesday, the gap between the repurchase price and the current market level has widened to roughly €11 per share.
That momentum has been building for weeks. The stock has gained 20.02 percent over the past 30 days, and on August 3 alone it jumped 4.91 percent to €165.42. The rally has been fueled in part by strong cloud results from Microsoft and Amazon, whose Azure and AWS growth rates point to a healthy investment cycle in enterprise software.
Regulatory relief has added to the tailwinds. Germany's Federal Cartel Office has closed its preliminary investigation into SAP without imposing any conditions. The authority had been examining complaints from competitors, including Celonis, over alleged abuses related to data access and the bundling of the Signavio product. According to Handelsblatt, those allegations were not substantiated. The decision removes a lingering overhang for the company's cloud business, and the market responded with a 1.49 percent gain on Tuesday to €167.46.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Insider activity has reinforced the sense of confidence. Anchor shareholder Harald Tschira increased his voting rights stake from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent through voting agreements. CEO Christian Klein also purchased shares worth €325,219 at an average price of €133.60 — a level well below where the stock now trades.
The backdrop to all this activity is the second-quarter earnings report released in late July. Cloud revenue rose 22 percent, or 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis, to €6.28 billion. The current cloud backlog grew 27 percent to €22.9 billion, signaling sustained demand beyond the current fiscal year. IFRS earnings per share climbed to €1.89 from €1.46 a year earlier.
Yet the picture is not entirely unblemished. SAP trimmed its operating profit guidance to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from the previous €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion, citing dilution from recent acquisitions. The move prompted several banks to lower their price targets while maintaining positive ratings. Barclays cut its target from €255 to €220 on July 28, keeping an "Overweight" stance. Goldman Sachs trimmed its target from €230 to €215 on July 27, retaining a "Buy" recommendation. Berenberg also reduced its target that day, from €215 to €205, while holding its "Buy" rating.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A separate controversy has clouded the narrative around the company's innovation strategy. SAP invested roughly €60 million in automation startup n8n, taking a stake of just under 1.3 percent at a company valuation of $5.2 billion. Reports suggest SAP was simultaneously developing a competing product internally, even as the partnership was publicly celebrated. n8n has not yet responded publicly.
The next milestone for investors comes on October 21, when SAP is scheduled to report third-quarter results. Between now and then, the question is whether the combination of regulatory clarity, active buybacks, and insider purchases can sustain the current recovery — and whether the margin pressures flagged by management will prove temporary or structural.
Ad
SAP Stock: New Analysis - 5 August
Fresh SAP information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
