SAP's Cloud Backlog Hits €22.9 Billion, Yet the Profit Outlook Just Got Murkier
Published on 08/04/2026 at 13:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tension at the heart of SAP's investment case has rarely been laid so bare. On one side sits a cloud pipeline growing at a pace that has caught many observers off guard; on the other, a profit forecast that has been trimmed in the face of acquisition-related drag. Investors are left to decide which signal carries more weight.
The Numbers That Tell Two Stories
When the Walldorf-based software group published its second-quarter results on July 23, the headline figures offered something for both bulls and bears. Cloud revenue climbed 22 percent to €6.28 billion, while the cloud backlog — the contracted revenue stream that provides visibility into coming quarters — expanded 26 percent on a currency-adjusted basis to €22.9 billion. That backlog figure came in comfortably ahead of what many analysts had penciled in.
The operating picture was more subdued. Non-IFRS operating profit rose 7 percent to €2.74 billion, and management trimmed its full-year guidance for that metric to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from the previous €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion. The company attributed the adjustment to dilution effects from recent acquisitions, a reminder that deal-making carries a short-term earnings cost even when the strategic logic holds.
CEO Christian Klein pointed to the partner ecosystem as a key growth driver, and noted that artificial intelligence now features in more than 90 percent of SAP's 50 largest deals. That detail underscores how deeply the AI narrative has become embedded in the company's commercial engine.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
A Divided Analyst Camp
The response from the sell-side reflects the competing forces at play. Jefferies' Charles Brennan reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a €210 price target on July 28, citing the better-than-expected backlog. Berenberg's Nay Soe Naing trimmed his target from €215 to €205 on July 27 but held his buy recommendation, citing higher cost assumptions despite the strong cloud growth. Goldman Sachs kept SAP on its "Conviction Buy List" with a €215 target, while Deutsche Bank reiterated its "Buy" at €200.
The skeptical wing is smaller but audible. JPMorgan's Toby Ogg stuck with "Neutral" and a €175 target, pointing to the margin contraction in the quarter. The broader analyst range, according to reports, stretches from €120 at DZ Bank to €273 at Bernstein — a spread wide enough to suggest genuine disagreement about what this business is worth.
At the current share price, the stock trades at roughly 22 times estimated 2026 earnings, a multiple that looks reasonable or rich depending on which end of that target spectrum you find persuasive.
Insider Moves and Family Alignment
While analysts debated the numbers, insiders were making their own statements. Klein purchased SAP shares worth €325,219 on July 23 at an average price of €133.60 — a moment when the stock was trading notably lower than it does today. Whether read as confidence in the strategy or simply a prudent entry point, the timing was notable.
There was also a structural shift among major shareholders. Udo and Harald Tschira reported on July 21 that their voting rights had risen to approximately 4.2 percent each, up from around 0.5 percent, following new voting agreements within the family that allow for closer coordination among the shareholders.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Market's Verdict So Far
The share price reaction suggests investors are, for now, prioritizing growth over margin caution. The stock has climbed 17.56 percent over the past 30 days, a recovery that picked up particular momentum on Monday when the DAX breached the 26,000-point mark for the first time, helped by hopes of a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East and a robust earnings season. SAP closed that session at €165.00, up 3.59 percent on the day.
Yet the rebound has its limits. The shares still sit roughly 35.84 percent below their 52-week high of €257.70, set on August 7, 2025, and remain about 5.4 percent beneath the 200-day moving average. The stock has reclaimed lost ground, but the long-term technical trend has yet to turn decisively in its favor.
The coming weeks will show whether the market can sustain its focus on the cloud backlog while the profit guidance works its way through estimates. With analyst targets spanning more than €150, the debate over SAP's fair value is far from settled.
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