SAP's Cloud Order Book Swells Past €24 Billion, but the Profit Line Stays Exactly Where It Was
Published on 10/25/2026 at 14:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SAP closed the third quarter of 2026 with a cloud business firing on all cylinders and a profit target it declined to touch. That gap — between what the order book promises and what management is willing to commit on earnings — sits at the heart of the mixed reception that greeted Wednesday's release.
The headline number: Current Cloud Backlog reached €24.144 billion in the quarter, up 26% at constant currencies. Goldman Sachs analyst Mohammed Moawalla leaned on precisely that figure on Friday when he lifted his price target on the stock from €230 to €258 and reiterated a buy rating, citing the durability of the backlog and SAP's competitive standing.
Order intake, though, is only half the story. Cloud revenue itself climbed 26%, and the Cloud ERP Suite did better still with 29% growth. Total revenue advanced 13%. Operating profit rose 18% on both an IFRS and an adjusted basis — a solid gain, yet one that trails the pace of the cloud top line.
Guidance: Sharper on Sales, Silent on Profit
SAP now expects 2026 cloud revenue at the upper end of its €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion range, and is steering cloud and software revenue toward the top of its existing corridor as well. What the company did not do is raise its earnings forecast. A more optimistic sales position inside the current outlook is not the same thing as a higher profit target, and investors were left to draw that distinction themselves.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Thursday's trading reflected the ambiguity. The shares surrendered early gains, with dpa-AFX pointing to a soft broader market, the unchanged profit guidance and the stock's strong prior recovery. By the afternoon, analyst commentary had pulled the price back into positive territory.
Two Brokers, Two Readings
JPMorgan struck a more cautious note on Thursday, flagging headwinds that cap how far the quarter's upside can travel. The bank also said it found no concrete metrics on how SAP intends to monetise its own AI offerings — a gap that leaves the cloud growth story intact but limits what the numbers say about future earnings power.
Goldman's upgrade, published a day later, took the opposite tack, treating the backlog's momentum as the decisive signal. The split between the two houses is less about the expansion SAP has already booked than about how far it extends.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Date That Settles the Argument
SAP has pencilled in 28 January 2027 for preliminary fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. That release will show whether the company actually lands at the top of its revenue ranges — and whether the order book converts into the earnings trajectory that the bulls are betting on. Until then, backlog, revenue and profit targets are best weighed separately.
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