SAP's Summer Rally Gains Momentum as Regulatory Cloud Lifts and Insiders Add to Stakes
Published on 08/04/2026 at 20:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stars are aligning for SAP shareholders as the software giant emerges from a regulatory probe unscathed, while a wave of insider buying and a hefty buyback program signal confidence from those closest to the company. The German Federal Cartel Office has closed its preliminary investigation into SAP without imposing any conditions, clearing the air around allegations that the company abused its market position in data access and improperly bundled its Signavio product. The probe, triggered by a complaint from competitor Celonis, had cast a shadow over SAP's cloud ambitions for months — but regulators ultimately found the allegations unsubstantiated, according to reports from Reuters and Handelsblatt.
A Flurry of Shareholder Activity
The antitrust all-clear landed on a day when several threads in SAP's shareholder register were being rewoven. BlackRock crossed the 5 percent reporting threshold on July 30 through additional purchases, now holding 5.04 percent of voting rights. Meanwhile, anchor shareholder Harald Tschira expanded his stake from 0.57 percent to 4.22 percent via voting bond agreements. CEO Christian Klein had also stepped up to the plate on July 24, acquiring SAP shares worth €325,219 at an average price of €133.60 — a level well below where the stock trades today.
The company itself has been busy in the market as well. SAP's first interim report on its 2026 buyback program shows the group repurchased 2,184,430 of its own shares between July 27 and 31 at a weighted average price of €157.62, representing a volume of roughly €344.3 million. Notably, those repurchases were executed at prices significantly below the current trading level.
Cloud Engine Keeps Humming
The foundation for this renewed confidence rests on the second-quarter results SAP delivered on July 23. The current cloud backlog — a key forward-looking indicator — expanded by 27 percent to €22.9 billion, signaling sustained demand that stretches well beyond the current fiscal year. Cloud revenue climbed 22 percent (or 24 percent on a currency-adjusted basis) to €6.28 billion, while IFRS earnings per share rose from €1.46 to €1.89. Non-IFRS operating profit came in at €2.74 billion, up 7 percent.
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There is, however, a wrinkle in the narrative. SAP trimmed its full-year guidance for non-IFRS operating profit to a range of €11.8 billion to €12.2 billion, down from the previous €11.9 billion to €12.3 billion target. Management attributed the adjustment to dilution effects from the recently completed acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs. The modest cut doesn't diminish the growth story, but it does highlight how M&A activity can pressure margins in the short term before contributing to the cloud backlog.
Analyst Targets Drift Lower, But Conviction Holds
Wall Street's response to the numbers has been a study in measured optimism. Several banks trimmed their price targets while maintaining positive ratings. Goldman Sachs lowered its target from €230 to €215 on July 27, keeping a "Buy" recommendation after a detailed analysis of second-quarter operating margin trends. Barclays followed a day later, cutting its target from €255 to €220 while reaffirming "Overweight," with analysts pointing to near-term cost uncertainties despite convincing revenue momentum. Berenberg also reduced its target on July 27, from €215 to €205, citing adjusted margin assumptions amid a higher cost base — but held firm on "Buy."
Jefferies, by contrast, confirmed its buy rating with a €210 target on July 28, citing momentum in the cloud subscription business. The more cautious camp includes JP Morgan at €175 and UBS at €164, while Deutsche Bank sits in the middle at €200. The target range now spans €164 to €215, reflecting genuine disagreement about how the margin story will unfold.
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Market Votes With Its Feet
The market itself has been decidedly more upbeat than the analyst spread might suggest. The stock is currently trading at €168.18, up 1.93 percent on the day, and has gained 19.58 percent over the past month — a robust recovery from the pressure the shares faced earlier in the summer. The recent momentum got an additional boost from strong cloud results at Microsoft and Amazon, whose Azure and AWS growth rates signal a healthy investment cycle across the enterprise software sector.
The next major test arrives on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter results. The question investors will be asking: can the cloud growth engine maintain this pace while the cost side of the equation gets the attention it now clearly demands?
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