SAP Shares Find Their Footing as Cloud Backlog Outweighs a Trimmed Outlook
Published on 08/03/2026 at 10:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market's verdict on SAP's latest quarterly report was unusually clear-cut: growth in future cloud commitments matters more than a near-term profit warning. Shares of the Walldorf-based software group have been grinding higher since the July 23 earnings release, with the stock adding 2.20 percent on Monday to reach 162.90 euros, building on a Friday close of 159.40 euros. Over the past week, the gain has stretched to 8.31 percent, and the 30-day advance now stands at 14.30 percent.
What has investors cheering is the Current Cloud Backlog, which expanded 27 percent on a currency-adjusted basis to 22.9 billion euros — a figure that offers a window into future revenue streams. Cloud revenue itself rose 22 percent to 6.28 billion euros, or 24 percent in constant currency, while the non-IFRS operating result climbed 7 percent to 2.74 billion euros. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 1.89 euros.
The enthusiasm persisted even though management trimmed its full-year guidance for adjusted operating profit to a range of 11.8 to 12.2 billion euros, down from the previous 11.9 to 12.3 billion euros. The company attributed the revision to dilution effects from the planned acquisitions of Dremio and Prior Labs, both announced in May and expected to close in the third quarter pending regulatory approvals. The two software firms are slated for integration into SAP's "Business AI" platform.
That explanation appears to have landed well. Rather than punishing the margin drag, the market focused on the order book strength — though the stock still trades 6.56 percent below its 200-day moving average, suggesting a full trend reversal remains elusive. The distance to previous highs is even more stark: shares sit 36.79 percent below the 257.70-euro peak reached in August of last year, while the 52-week low of 127.52 euros is now 27.74 percent away.
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Insider buying and a fresh buyback tranche add fuel
Adding to the positive sentiment, CEO Christian Klein purchased SAP shares worth 325,219 euros on July 23 at an average price of 133.60 euros — comfortably below current levels. The secondary source dates the transaction to July 24, but both accounts agree on the value and the signal it sends. Insider purchases from the C-suite are frequently read as a vote of confidence in the company's strategic direction.
The capital returns story extends beyond the CEO's wallet. On July 27, SAP launched the second tranche of its 2026 share buyback program, worth up to 2.6 billion euros and corresponding to roughly 18.5 million shares. The overall program, which runs through the end of 2027, is capped at 10 billion euros — a clear statement that the company intends to keep returning capital to shareholders even as it integrates new acquisitions.
Two days before the buyback launch, SAP announced a strategic innovation partnership with SIGNAL IDUNA to develop AI applications for the insurance sector, adding another layer to the company's forward-looking narrative.
Analyst views split, ownership structure shifts
The analyst community remains divided on where SAP goes from here. Jefferies' Charles Brennan reaffirmed a "Buy" rating with a 210-euro price target, pointing to the cloud backlog exceeding expectations. Goldman Sachs trimmed its target from 230 to 215 euros on July 27 but kept its buy recommendation. Berenberg maintained a "Buy" with a 205-euro target, and Deutsche Bank saw potential at 200 euros. JPMorgan struck a more cautious tone, holding a neutral stance with a 175-euro target — a reminder that the stock's recent run has not convinced everyone on valuation.
At the more bearish end, the DZ Bank cut its price target sharply to 120 euros, expressing concerns about near-term margin development. Across the street, price targets now span from 120 to 215 euros, with the majority of ratings still in buy territory.
Meanwhile, the shareholder register is quietly shifting. Udo Tschira reported a voting rights stake of 4.19 percent after crossing a threshold on July 20, up from 0.54 percent. Harald Tschira followed days later, raising his stake to 4.22 percent from 0.57 percent. Both increases stem from the conclusion of voting agreements, suggesting a more coordinated positioning among the founding families.
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What to watch next
The next major checkpoint arrives on October 21, when SAP reports third-quarter numbers. By then, the Dremio acquisition is expected to have closed, giving investors a clearer picture of how the integration is progressing and whether the cloud momentum can be sustained alongside the buyback strategy. For now, the market seems willing to give management the benefit of the doubt — but the wide gap between analyst targets and the stock's distance from its all-time high suggest the debate is far from settled.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
