Siemens Energy's Gamesa Milestone Masks a Market That Can't Agree on the Price
Published on 08/06/2026 at 15:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The headline numbers from Siemens Energy's fiscal third quarter were unambiguously strong — yet the market's reaction has been anything but uniform. In the span of 24 hours, two major banks looked at the same earnings report and reached sharply divergent conclusions, underscoring just how contested the company's valuation story has become.
A Wind Unit's Long-Awaited Return
The most striking development buried in the quarterly report is the turnaround at Siemens Gamesa. The wind turbine subsidiary — long the conglomerate's most painful liability — posted an operating profit of €75 million for the quarter, its first positive result since 2022. That marks a €513 million swing from the year-ago period, when the division bled €438 million in red ink.
This shift matters beyond the wind unit itself. For years, Gamesa's technical troubles and billion-euro losses dragged down the entire Siemens Energy investment case. Its return to profitability reframes the parent company's narrative: this is no longer merely a bet on grid expansion and gas turbines, but a business demonstrating it can fix its most intractable structural problems.
The broader quarterly figures support that reading. Revenue climbed 18.5% to €11.4 billion, while operating profit before special items reached €1.623 billion — more than triple the €497 million posted a year earlier. Net income came in at €1.188 billion. Order intake rose 8.5% to €17.9 billion, and the backlog now stands at a formidable €162 billion, providing multi-year revenue visibility.
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Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance: revenue growth of 14% to 16%, an operating margin between 10% and 12%, and net income of roughly €4 billion.
Two Banks, Two Verdicts
The divergence in analyst opinion is stark. Deutsche Bank Research responded to the results by reiterating a "Buy" rating and lifting its price target to €210 — implying upside of roughly 39% from the levels at which the call was published. The bank's analysts dismissed concerns about a potential oversupply in gas turbines as overblown, arguing that growth and margins are accelerating faster than the market currently prices in.
Oddo BHF took the opposite view, trimming its price target to €175. The French bank had apparently baked in higher expectations ahead of the earnings release, expectations the actual numbers failed to fully satisfy.
The gap between those two assessments — €35, or roughly 20% — illustrates how differently the Siemens Energy story can be read right now. One camp sees operational improvement as the dominant force; the other remains fixated on valuation risk.
A Market That Shrugs
For all the strength in the numbers, the share price has not cooperated. The stock slipped 1.72% on the day following the report, trading at €148.60 — a sign that some investors are taking profits after the recent rally rather than betting on the operational turnaround. At €151.46, the shares remain 22.48% below their 52-week high of €195.38.
That gap between fundamental progress and price action is a recurring theme for Siemens Energy. The company has transformed itself from a crisis-ridden candidate for a breakup into a profitable player in the energy transition, but the market's enthusiasm has been selective.
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The August Board Decision
Adding to the mix is a potential structural overhaul that could reshape the company's profile. The supervisory board is weighing a carve-out of the "Transformation of Industry" division, a heavyweight unit with more than 15,000 employees and annual revenue of roughly €5.7 billion.
A special board meeting is scheduled for August 25, where directors could decide on a sale or initial public offering for the division. Chairman Joe Kaeser sees such a move as a path to higher margins for the remaining business. A spin-off would sharpen the company's focus on grid technology and gas turbines while potentially freeing up additional capital.
For investors, that decision — alongside the next set of quarterly numbers — is shaping up as one of the most consequential catalysts in the months ahead. The company is simultaneously demonstrating operational discipline in its most troubled division, debating a major portfolio reshaping, and watching its shares trade at a meaningful discount to recent highs. How those threads weave together will determine whether the market's skepticism or the analysts' optimism proves better calibrated.
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