Siemens Energy's Record Order Book Faces Off Against the SpaceX Turbine Question
Published on 09/01/2026 at 18:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The most intriguing paradox in German equities right now is playing out at Siemens Energy: a company that just booked its largest quarterly order intake ever, yet finds itself at the center of a market narrative driven by a single Elon Musk post.
The trigger for the recent turbulence was a media report suggesting SpaceX intends to manufacture its own gas turbine components for its data center operations. Musk did offer some pushback, noting that natural gas would remain a complement to solar power for years to come. But the prospect of SpaceX producing turbine blades in-house — which could accelerate gas turbine commissioning timelines by up to 18 months — was enough to rattle the share price and drag down suppliers including Howmet Aerospace and GE Vernova.
At the current level of roughly 141 euros, Siemens Energy sits about 8 percent below its level from a week ago and roughly 28 percent beneath its 52-week high of 195.38 euros, reached in April. The stock has fallen far enough that technical indicators now point to oversold conditions, with the relative strength index hovering near 37. The 50-day moving average of 153.73 euros sits clearly above the current price, underscoring how steep the recent descent has been.
Analysts Push Back on the SpaceX Threat
The sell-side response has been notably measured. JPMorgan's Phil Buller reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating with a 245-euro price target, pointing out that gas turbine components account for only about 10 percent of Siemens Energy's group revenue. Deutsche Bank's Gael de-Bray maintained a "Buy" recommendation with a 210-euro target, framing the SpaceX initiative as an attempt to secure the company's own AI infrastructure rather than a broad entry into the turbine market. Jefferies likewise kept its "Buy" rating with a 215-euro target, with analyst Lucas Ferhani arguing that any production shift would take years to materialize, making near-term pricing effects unlikely.
Bloomberg Intelligence's Omid Vaziri added another layer of context, noting that Siemens Energy has been expanding its internal capabilities for ceramic cores and casting processes — a move that could ease near-term supply bottlenecks and support the high-margin service business well beyond 2030.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?
The underlying message from the analyst community is consistent: the SpaceX reports reflect the extraordinary global demand for electricity rather than a fundamental threat to Siemens Energy's core franchise.
Record Orders Tell a Different Story
The operational picture lends weight to that view. For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Siemens Energy reported record order intake of 17.9 billion euros. Perhaps more significantly, the wind turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa posted its first positive quarterly result since fiscal 2022 — a sign that the lengthy restructuring effort in the wind division is finally bearing fruit.
CEO Christian Bruch used a Bloomberg TV appearance on Monday to push back against concerns about a bubble in data center investment, confirming that reservations are increasingly being converted into firm orders. That assertion aligns with the analysts' argument that electricity demand from AI and data centers is structural rather than speculative.
An insider purchase of shares worth approximately 100,260 euros, reported between August 22 and 28, adds a further note of confidence from within the company, even if such transactions rarely move the needle in the short term.
The Gap Between Price and Fundamentals
What makes this episode unusual is the disconnect between the share price trajectory and the underlying business momentum. The stock has given back much of its year-to-date gains, though it still trades about 17 percent higher than at the start of 2025. The recent slide has been sharp enough that the stock now sits roughly 28 percent below its April peak, with the RSI signaling oversold conditions — a technical picture that often precedes a bounce, though it offers no guarantees.
The analyst price targets, ranging from 210 to 245 euros, imply substantial upside from current levels. That gap between where the stock trades and where the sell-side sees it heading reflects the tension between short-term narrative-driven selling and the longer-term fundamentals.
What to Watch Next
Investors now have a clear date on the calendar: November 11, when Siemens Energy publishes its full-year fiscal 2026 results. Between now and then, the debate over what SpaceX's plans mean for the competitive landscape in the turbine business is likely to continue generating headlines.
The key question is whether the market will eventually come around to the analysts' view — that the SpaceX story says more about the scale of electricity demand than it does about any imminent threat to Siemens Energy's market position. For now, the record order book and the improving wind business provide a solid counterweight to the narrative-driven selling, even if the chart has yet to reflect it.
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