Siemens Energy Shrugs Off SpaceX Turbine Jitters as Analysts See Overreaction
Published on 09/01/2026 at 16:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The sight of Elon Musk's name attached to a media report was enough to knock Germany's largest turbine maker off its stride this week, but the selloff that followed is looking increasingly like noise rather than signal. Siemens Energy shares touched €139.50 on Tuesday — their weakest level since mid-August — before paring losses to trade near €140.08, extending a slide that began the previous session with a roughly 5 percent decline.
At the heart of the market's unease is a report suggesting SpaceX intends to move into the production of gas turbine components. For investors conditioned to treat Musk's ventures as existential threats to incumbents, the headline read like a new competitor entering a lucrative market. The reality, according to the analyst community, is considerably more nuanced.
Wall Street pushes back on the bear case
JPMorgan's Phil Buller has framed the development as tentatively positive rather than threatening. SpaceX, he argues, is targeting individual components such as rotating and stationary blades — not complete gas turbine systems. A new parts supplier does not constitute an assault on the core franchise of established manufacturers, and JPMorgan has reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating with a €245 price target.
Deutsche Bank's Gael de-Bray has struck a similar chord, maintaining a buy recommendation with a €210 target and describing the SpaceX plans as far less menacing than initial reactions suggested. Jefferies, which weighed in on Monday, kept its "Buy" rating and €215 price objective, with analyst Lucas Ferhani interpreting the move as evidence of surging electricity demand rather than a competitive threat. A production retooling of the kind SpaceX would need takes years, he noted, making near-term pricing effects unlikely.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Siemens Energy?
A recurring theme across the research notes: the SpaceX plans touch only about 10 percent of Siemens Energy's group revenues. The core business of complete power plant turbines remains largely insulated.
A market already at capacity
The context that matters here is an industry straining against its own limits. Lead times for gas turbines now stretch beyond four years, and Siemens Energy is booked solid through 2029, according to industry sources. Rival GE Vernova reported an order backlog of 116 gigawatts at mid-year. When demand for complete systems so dramatically outstrips available supply, an additional component supplier barely moves the needle.
That scarcity helps explain why the recent share price weakness looks more like a headline-driven overreaction than a fundamental reassessment. Bloomberg Intelligence's Omid Vaziri has pointed out that Siemens Energy is already expanding its internal capacity for ceramic cores and casting processes, which should ease near-term supply bottlenecks and support the high-margin services business beyond 2030.
The technical picture tells its own story. At current levels, the stock sits roughly 7.8 percent below where it traded a week ago and about 28 percent beneath its 2025 high of €195.38. The relative strength index reads 37, suggesting oversold conditions, while the 50-day moving average of €153.73 stands well above the current price. Despite the recent stumble, the shares remain up around 17 percent year to date.
What comes next
The analyst consensus points to meaningful upside from here, with price targets ranging from €210 to €245 across JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Jefferies. For those three houses, the recent dip has done nothing to change the underlying investment case.
The coming weeks will likely see continued sensitivity to any further SpaceX-related headlines, as well as attention on the planned carve-out of the industrial division, which is drawing growing interest from financial investors. But for a company with order books filled into the back half of the decade and a structural supply shortage working in its favor, the market's initial fright may prove to have been exactly that — a fright, not a fundamental shift.
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