Silver's Physical Ledger Cuts Both Ways as Banks Split on the $50 Line
Published on 11/12/2026 at 07:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Silver settled at $51.69 an ounce yesterday, a modest rebound that suggested the worst of the recent selling pressure had passed — but the physical market is telling a more complicated story, and the forecasters can't agree on what happens next.
London's vaults held 28,889 tonnes of silver at the end of October, according to LBMA data published yesterday. That marks a 0.33% decline from the prior month — a marginal drawdown, but a drawdown nonetheless. The figure needs to be read carefully: it is a monthly change, whereas COMEX reporting gives a snapshot at a single point in time. No synchronized depletion across both storage hubs can be inferred from the London number alone.
Buyers Step Up, Miners Deliver More
Offsetting that modest London outflow, BullionVault reported on November 6 that its customers bought a net 1 tonne of silver in October, lifting total holdings to 1,140 tonnes. The company's own Silver Investor Index climbed to 55.0 — its highest reading in four months. That points to genuine appetite within BullionVault's client base, though whether it broadens into a price-supporting force depends on whether the buying continues and fresh demand joins in.
Supply is moving in the opposite direction. Endeavour Silver disclosed in its SEC filing on Monday that output for the nine months to September 30, 2026 reached 5,915,874 ounces, a 33% increase year on year. The company credited Terronera and a longer contribution from Kolpa. For this producer at least, rising output stands against London's shrinking stockpile.
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A Range of Targets, and One Warning
Bank forecasts published today span a wide spectrum, with the most bullish calls reaching $95 an ounce. None of the surveyed houses expects a return to triple-digit prices in the near term, tying their recovery hopes to a limited short-term horizon. The pivotal question is whether looser monetary conditions can revive demand while industrial consumption remains under pressure.
JPMorgan flagged on Monday that investor positioning in gold and silver is thin, without attaching a specific silver price target to that observation. Light positioning offers a potential springboard for additional buying if investors rebuild exposure — a factor that gains weight if the prospect of a less aggressive US Federal Reserve draws money into precious metals.
Julius Bär struck a more cautious tone. A decisive break below $50 an ounce could trigger further selling, particularly from Western investors, the bank warned. Yesterday's close of $51.69 sits above that risk threshold, and avoiding a clear breach of the mark is key to near-term stability. Note that the secondary source cites a closing price of $52.02; the discrepancy reflects differing snapshot timings rather than any market event.
Looking further out, Julius Bär anticipates easing US inflation pressure and a softer policy stance next year — a combination that would improve the backdrop if it materializes. The bank also sees central bank purchases underpinning gold, a demand driver it does not extend to silver.
The Industrial Question Mark
What tempers the bullish case is the expected trajectory of industrial demand. The durability of higher prices therefore hinges on whether investment appetite can absorb weaker fabrication use. The divergence among bank forecasts captures exactly that uncertainty: monetary relief would help silver if it sparks additional purchases. If buyers stay on the sidelines, the sell-off risk Julius Bär describes carries more weight.
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Data on the Near Horizon
Yesterday's gain came despite higher US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar — a sign that the selling pressure built up earlier had eased for now. On Tuesday, unexpectedly hot US inflation data and hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve had weighed on the metal, keeping the rate outlook alongside physical inventories as a primary driver.
Weekly US initial jobless claims are due today, with the October producer price index following on Friday, November 13. Both releases are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time. For the stabilization to extend, these prints would need to avoid reinforcing expectations of further rate hikes.
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