SK Hynix Rises 5.4% as Nomura and Morgan Stanley Diverge on the Memory Cycle
Published on 11/11/2026 at 14:32 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SK Hynix shares climbed 5.4% today, recovering from early losses as South Korean chip stocks rallied and foreign investors returned to the market as buyers. The turnaround came after US AI cloud provider CoreWeave gained roughly 12% in after-hours trading following its earnings release, even as Nvidia had weakened overnight.
Two Houses, Two Timelines
The day's central question is how long the memory boom can run, and two major brokerages have staked out sharply opposing answers. Nomura keeps a price target of 4.7 million won, expecting memory to stay scarce at least through 2028. Morgan Stanley, by contrast, cut its target from 2.6 million won to 1.6 million won — a reduction of roughly 38% — in a call dated Monday, citing a mix of additional memory supply and delayed data-center projects.
The gap matters because it determines how long unusually fat margins feed into earnings models. Nomura's case rests on demand from AI infrastructure staying above available supply; Morgan Stanley is looking past the current scarcity phase toward earnings power once new fabs come online.
A Higher Near-Term Forecast, a Lower Long-Term Margin
What stands out is that Morgan Stanley simultaneously raised its 2027 operating profit forecast for SK Hynix by 13%. The bank is more bullish on the near term than before, but more cautious about how long that strength endures. For 2029–2035, it cut its expected average operating margin from 53% to 28% — the assumption that explains how a higher short-term estimate sits alongside a much lower target.
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Morgan Stanley also takes a more conservative view of infrastructure buildout, assuming some planned data-center capacity arrives later than scheduled. That would hurt if memory orders slip at the same time new production lines ramp up. The bank reiterated its "Overweight" rating.
Long-Term Contracts Cover Half of Output
Operationally, SK Hynix has moved to lock in demand. According to a Korea Herald report, the company has struck agreements with 14 major customers covering more than half of planned production capacity for 2027–2028 — though prices remain tied to the market. The deals underpin volume planning as long as customers take the agreed quantities; how profitable those shipments prove depends on future supply conditions, which is precisely where the analyst dispute bites.
The company's third-quarter 2026 results, reported October 28, showed revenue of 105 trillion won, operating profit of 83.3 trillion won and net profit of 39.8 trillion won.
Washington Buildout and a Kioxia Payout
Alongside the earnings debate, SK Hynix is preparing to expand its US footprint. According to the SK Group on Monday, additional executive appointments and a reorganization of the US business are planned around December 3, aimed at strengthening ties with key American customers including Nvidia.
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Shareholders also have a return of capital to look forward to: profits from the company's stake in Kioxia will be distributed via a special dividend.
For now, the stock's advance reflects a broader semiconductor recovery and returning foreign buyers. The longer-term verdict hinges on margins — Nomura's optimistic view needs sustained scarcity, while Morgan Stanley's cautious scenario gains weight if the memory market visibly loosens.
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