SK Hynix Rises 7.2% as Analysts Split on Whether AI Demand Can Absorb New Memory Supply
Published on 11/10/2026 at 19:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SK Hynix shares gained 7.2% today, lifted by a broad recovery in Asian technology stocks after overnight advances on Wall Street. Media reports pointed to resilient global demand for AI chips and softer oil prices as the forces steadying sentiment toward South Korean semiconductor names. Samsung Electronics rose alongside its crosstown rival.
The rally came one day after Morgan Stanley cut its price target on SK Hynix from 2.6 million Won to 1.6 million Won — a 38% reduction — while keeping its "Overweight" rating on the stock. According to media reports, the brokerage tied the move to concerns about easing memory supply and a slower build-out of data centers after 2028.
A Split Verdict on Timing
At the heart of the debate is a simple question: when does fresh demand meet fresh supply? Morgan Stanley sees added memory capacity and stiffer competition squeezing margins, while delays to AI data-center projects could push consumption further into the future. Should production ramp faster than consumption, the combination would weigh on SK Hynix.
The brokerage trimmed its forecast for growth in new global data-center capacity in 2028 to 9%, down from 21% previously. It also expects roughly 5 GW of data-center projects to slip from 2028 into 2029, a shift that could reshape the trajectory of memory demand. For the 2029–2035 stretch, Morgan Stanley now models an average operating margin of 28% for SK Hynix, putting sustainable profitability at the center of its valuation.
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Near-term numbers, by contrast, look brighter. The firm raised its 2027 operating profit estimate by 13% to about 468 trillion Won. Morgan Stanley also indicated that a credible slowdown in capacity expansion would make the shares more attractive.
Goldman Sachs takes a different tack. The bank considers the recent selloff in Korean chip stocks overdone and continues to expect robust AI spending, with data-center investment potentially shifting between regions. It projects global AI infrastructure outlays of roughly USD 1.3 trillion in 2027, rising to USD 2 trillion the following year.
What the Company Says About Supply
SK Hynix offered its own read on the balance of supply and demand at its earnings presentation on October 28. Management said it expects memory-chip shortages to persist through 2030. Long-term agreements, according to the company, already cover more than 50% of production capacity for 2027–2028, and HBM4 was expected to become its leading product in the fourth quarter.
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For the third quarter of 2026, SK Hynix reported revenue of 105 trillion Won and operating profit of 83.3 trillion Won. Net income came in at 39.8 trillion Won. The company also pledged to return roughly 100 trillion Won to shareholders this year, including cash dividends of more than 30 trillion Won and more than 60 trillion Won earmarked for buybacks and share cancellations.
The Verdict Hinges on the Calendar
The two brokerage views converge on the same variable: whether additional demand arrives before new supply does. Goldman's projected investment growth favors SK Hynix provided it translates into memory orders in time. Morgan Stanley's supply scenario argues against long-run margin stability if data-center projects slip at the same moment. High AI spending supports the company as long as extra output does not erode profitability — a question that will be settled by the calendar as much as by the balance sheet.
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