SoftBank's AI Bet Under the Microscope: A $3.7 Billion Write-Down, a Malaysian Venture, and a Fair-Value Trim
Published on 11/11/2026 at 15:52 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SoftBank Group shares climbed 8.6% on Wednesday as a friendlier mood toward AI-related names lifted the Japanese conglomerate, with media reports tying the turnaround to CoreWeave's better-than-expected results and speculation about Anthropic's potential valuation in an initial public offering. The advance came despite a mixed backdrop of quarterly losses, a fresh infrastructure commitment in Malaysia, and a regulatory setback in China.
A loss quarter sets the scene
For the second quarter of its fiscal 2026 â the three months from July through September â SoftBank reported a net loss of „1.12 trillion, a sharp reversal from the „2.50 trillion net profit booked in the same period a year earlier. Embedded in the red ink was a US$3.7 billion write-down linked to data-center projects in the United States, meaning a substantial chunk of the quarter's damage landed precisely on the infrastructure segment into which SoftBank is preparing to pour more capital.
Malaysia venture adds to the spending pile
On Monday, SoftBank Group, Grab, and PETROS signed joint development agreements for AI infrastructure in Malaysia. According to the companies, the arrangements provide for an initial joint seed capital of US$1.85 billion, with the planned investments subject to certain milestones and closing conditions. SoftBank is slated to contribute US$1 billion of that total, Grab a further US$750 million, and PETROS US$100 million. The agreements cover joint development of the planned infrastructure, and the investment amounts remain contingent on the stated conditions.
Beijing blocks the ABB robotics purchase
Separately, SoftBank disclosed a regulatory obstacle: China has prohibited its acquisition of ABB's Chinese robotics business. The company itself confirmed the veto.
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Analysts split on the debt-funded strategy
The debt-financed nature of SoftBank's AI push also drew scrutiny from the analyst community. Asymmetric Advisors strategist Amir Anvarzadeh, speaking on CNBC, called the group the poster child of the AI bubble, even as he saw no acute debt-servicing problem on the near horizon. That distinction matters for investors: a liquidity cushion underpins SoftBank's room to maneuver as long as current obligations can be met from it, while the economic success of the AI investments hinges on whether the stakes and infrastructure projects ultimately justify the capital deployed. Anvarzadeh's critique, in other words, targets the relationship between growth and leverage â and for shareholders, the question is whether SoftBank can convert its heavy outlay into durably valuable assets.
Morningstar turns more cautious on fair value
Morningstar has also taken a more guarded stance, cutting its fair-value estimate by 4% yesterday. By its calculation, Arm accounted for 54% of SoftBank's total assets â a concentration that makes the trajectory of a single holding unusually consequential. A higher Arm valuation would shore up SoftBank's asset base, while further declines would weigh on the stake's worth, leaving the group's valuation heavily dependent on how investors assess Arm. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, SoftBank's net asset value fell 17% according to Morningstar, which cites Arm's 23% share-price slide as the main driver. That gives the debate over SoftBank's valuation a concrete footing: the stock's appeal rests in part on how resilient the carrying values of its holdings prove to be.
OpenAI stake deepens the valuation dependence
Running alongside all this, SoftBank has invested a total of US$64.6 billion in OpenAI, holding roughly 13% on its own reckoning. The outsized commitment magnifies the importance of future OpenAI valuations for SoftBank â it argues in favor of the strategy if OpenAI's development can carry the hefty capital outlay, while weaker valuations would sharpen doubts about the debt-funded expansion.
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Taken together, the two analyst views form a coherent picture: Anvarzadeh sees sufficient financial headroom for now, while Morningstar's more cautious assessment highlights the reliance on a handful of large positions. A convincing re-rating therefore requires SoftBank's holdings to justify both the financing needs and the risks taken on.
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