SoftBank's Two-Front Push: From Chip Bets to Powering the AI Grid Itself
Published on 08/06/2026 at 02:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market's verdict on SoftBank Group is becoming a tale of two trading sessions. In Tokyo on Wednesday, the conglomerate's shares surged 13.96 percent to close at 5,958 yen, riding a wave of strength across Asian technology stocks. Yet on European exchanges, the same equity drifted 0.65 percent lower to 30.80 euros — a reminder that the holding company's valuation remains a work in progress as investors weigh its transformation from venture capital powerhouse into something far more infrastructural.
A Telecom Subsidiary Delivers the Catalyst
The immediate spark for the Tokyo rally came from an unlikely corner: SoftBank Corp, the group's Japanese mobile operator. Its first-quarter results for the fiscal year 2027 landed well ahead of expectations, with revenue climbing 9.4 percent to 1,814.7 billion yen and operating profit jumping 27.5 percent. Net income rose 3.3 percent to 147.7 billion yen, translating to earnings per share of 3.09 yen.
The standout detail was in the cloud and AI segment, where operating profit expanded 28 percent. Management has set an ambitious target of 30 percent annual growth for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, aiming for a margin between 30 and 40 percent. Average revenue per user ticked up by 60 yen, even as the mobile subscriber base contracted by 180,000 connections — a trade-off that suggests the company is prioritizing higher-value customers over raw volume.
The broader market backdrop helped amplify the move. The Nikkei 225 climbed 3.66 percent to 66,300.44 points, while South Korea's Kospi advanced 3.76 percent to 6,598.26, led by memory chip names like SK Hynix. Overnight strength on Wall Street, where the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.59 percent, provided additional fuel.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank Group?
The Holding Company's Own Scorecard Still Awaits
The parent group's consolidated figures are due Thursday, and expectations are elevated following May's upside surprise. In that report, SoftBank Group delivered earnings per share of $1.02 against a consensus estimate of just $0.16, with revenue of $13.17 billion versus the $12.54 billion analysts had penciled in.
That track record of beating forecasts has helped sustain the recent momentum. Over the past week, the stock has gained 25.71 percent in European trading, a clear echo of the Tokyo surge. The seven-day advance in euro terms stands at 17.66 percent, outpacing the 3.77 percent gain over the trailing 30 days — a signal that sentiment has shifted decisively in recent sessions.
Arm's Soft Spot and the Structural Debate
Not every portfolio holding cooperated on Wednesday. Arm Holdings, in which SoftBank holds roughly 90 percent, slipped 3.15 percent after its earnings failed to include the upward guidance revision some investors had hoped for. While revenue met expectations, analysts point to longer-term pressures: competition from the open RISC-V architecture and sluggish smartphone growth. The average analyst price target for Arm sits near $275, though the range is unusually wide at $125 to $450 — reflecting genuine disagreement about the chip designer's trajectory.
The demand for Arm-based CPUs in hyperscale data centers — think Microsoft's Cobalt chip or AWS Graviton — remains a core pillar of SoftBank's valuation thesis. One weak trading day does little to undermine that structural story, even if it adds near-term noise.
Building the Physical Layer of AI
Beyond its stakes in other companies, SoftBank is repositioning itself as an owner of the infrastructure that makes artificial intelligence possible. A newly announced joint venture with Cosmos Lab and DeltaX to manufacture batteries in Japan marks a notable departure from its historical role as a pure software and internet investor. Production is slated to begin in the fiscal year ending March 2028, with the partnership targeting annual revenue exceeding 100 billion yen by the end of the decade.
The logic is straightforward: AI data centers and power grids are the bottlenecks constraining large language model scaling, and whoever supplies the energy infrastructure stands to profit regardless of which model ultimately wins. SoftBank's reported willingness to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, plus $5 billion in the Stargate project, suggests it intends to be both financier and landlord of the AI boom simultaneously.
A Pipeline of Exits and a Persistent Risk Profile
The portfolio is also generating potential liquidity events. SoftBank-backed Indian B2B startup OfBusiness is reportedly preparing an IPO of up to $800 million, with as much as $200 million coming from fresh shares and the remainder from existing shareholders. Axis Capital, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citigroup are among the banks involved, and a draft prospectus could land in November.
SoftBank Group at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Elsewhere in the Indian portfolio, SoftBank holds an 8.60 percent stake in e-commerce firm Meesho. Investors Elevation Capital and Peak XV Partners recently sold a combined 2.3 percent of their Meesho holdings for roughly 1,949 crore rupees, weighing on that stock.
The group's valuation — a market capitalization of 171.53 billion euros — reflects a company that has outgrown its reputation as a mere proxy for tech startups. But the risk profile remains demanding. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at 75.87 percent, making SoftBank one of the most turbulent large-cap names in any market. Off-balance-sheet leasing commitments and the broader debt loads across Big Tech represent macro risks that touch every AI-adjacent company, SoftBank included.
The shares closed Wednesday in Europe at 31.65 euros, up 2.10 percent, building on the week's gains. Whether the infrastructure bets convert from PowerPoint projections into hard revenue — and whether Masayoshi Son's appetite for leverage proves justified — is the calculation that will define the next chapter. The market's verdict, for now, is cautiously optimistic but far from unanimous.
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