SoftBank's Wild AI Ride: Jefferies Upgrade, Euro Bond Retired, and a Malaysian Maybe
Published on 11/02/2026 at 14:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SoftBank Group shares fell 3.2% on Wednesday, caught in a broader wave of investor anxiety over whether the billions pouring into artificial intelligence will ever pay off. The drop came as AP reported fresh volatility in technology stocks amid fears of overheating in the AI trade, with heavy spending by Alphabet and Amazon — and doubts about the returns those outlays will generate — squarely in the market's crosshairs.
The pressure is not new. Reuters reported on Friday that SoftBank had already slid in a wider selloff of Japanese tech and chip-related shares, dragged down by weak cues from the US technology sector and unease tied to earnings from Amazon and Intel. Questions about the durability and profitability of AI investments have been weighing on sentiment throughout the period.
Jefferies Lifts Its Rating — With a Shrug
Against that nervous backdrop, Jefferies raised SoftBank to "Hold" from "Underperform" on Wednesday and lifted its price target to JPY 7,270 from JPY 3,140. The double upgrade — a better rating and a sharply higher target — nonetheless came with a muted rationale. Jefferies framed the preceding selloff as a reduction in downside risk rather than the basis for a fresh bull case, and it did not sketch out a new thesis for additional upside.
A Euro Bond Bows Out Early
On the financing side, SoftBank confirmed on October 23 that it had completed the early redemption and cancellation of all of its euro-denominated senior notes issued in 2021. The bonds carried a 2.875% coupon and had been due on January 6, 2027. According to the company, no notes from that issuance remain outstanding.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank Group?
Debt and credit risk have been a running theme in coverage of the group. Media reports on October 22 had flagged the borrowings tied to SoftBank's AI investments and doubts about their profitability as burdens, alongside worries about rising credit risk. Premiums on credit default swaps reached their highest level in nearly four years on October 20, according to that reporting.
A Malaysian Framework, Signed but Not Binding
Beyond the balance sheet, SoftBank has put pen to paper on a potential infrastructure venture in Malaysia. On October 8, together with Grab Holdings and Petroleum Sarawak Berhad, it signed a framework agreement to explore a platform for artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure in Sarawak. The partners stressed that the arrangement obliges them neither to conclude definitive contracts nor to carry the project through — a memorandum of understanding in all but name.
A Dividend Locked In
Shareholders, meanwhile, have a concrete payout to look forward to. Roughly two weeks ago the board set the interim dividend at JPY 5.50 per share, for a total of JPY 31,346 million. Payment is scheduled for December 2, 2026, with September 30 as the record date.
SoftBank Group at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Comes Next
The next confirmed date on SoftBank's calendar is November 10, when the group will publish results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The accompanying presentation will cover the six-month period ended September 30, 2026.
For now, the stock remains hostage to the same question gripping the entire AI complex: whether the spending can be converted into earnings. Jefferies' upgrade suggests the worst of the downside may be priced in. It does not claim the upside has been earned.
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