SpaceX Books a $40 Billion Chip Lease as Profit and Merger Talk Compete for Investor Attention
Published on 10/26/2026 at 16:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SpaceX has locked in a financing route for its terrestrial computing buildout, but the arrangement is a funding milestone rather than an earnings event. Under a framework leasing deal worth roughly $40 billion, struck with a vehicle managed by Apollo, the company gains access to NVIDIA Vera Rubin graphics processors and related equipment. Reuters describes the mechanics plainly: an Apollo-affiliated entity buys the AI chips and server hardware and leases it back to SpaceX, with the headline figure covering total repayment obligations. Hardware and capital access create possibilities — they do not by themselves prove an economic return.
That distinction matters because the operating numbers already tell a more compelling story. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 came in at $14.6 billion, up 161% from the year-earlier period, and Starlink counted 13.6 million subscribers. Net profit reached $4.4 billion, a swing from a net loss of $1.05 billion a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $8.8 billion. A single profitable quarter, though, does not amount to an all-clear for a capital program of this scale; a quarterly gain and the economics of added capacity answer different questions.
Analysts Lift Targets, but Not in Unison
The beat drew a constructive response on Wednesday. John Blackledge of TD Cowen reiterated his buy rating and raised his price target to $224 from $200. Colin Canfield of Cantor Fitzgerald kept his overweight call and lifted his target to $345 from $246. The direction is clear enough; the spread is a reminder that even bullish analysts disagree on how far the earnings strength justifies a richer valuation. A price target remains an estimate, not a value already delivered.
Capital spending frames the scale of the task. Third-quarter 2026 capex came to $19.6 billion, per an AP report, and SpaceX guided toward $35 billion to $40 billion in the fourth quarter. Growth of that magnitude puts the quality of expansion ahead of its pace — heavy outlay can lay the groundwork for future business, but it is first and foremost a use of funds, not evidence that the expected returns will materialize.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
On the financing itself, Musk said on Wednesday that SpaceX had closed a $40 billion debt facility for GPU purchases, describing it as largely callable. Reuters reported that the terms and the pricing agreement with investors were unclear, and that the meaning of "closed" remained open. The size of the facility is therefore not the quality signal; what matters is the obligations it creates and how productively the financed capital is deployed. Leasing explains how SpaceX obtains equipment — whether that equipment justifies the capital outlay is a separate managerial test.
A Committee Is Not a Deal
Alongside the buildout, the board has set up a special committee to review a possible combination with Tesla, according to the quarterly report published on October 20. No decision has been reached and no agreement is assured. Musk said on Wednesday that both companies had formed special committees for talks about a potential merger, while warning against treating a deal as certain; according to media reports, he sits on neither of the independent panels. Setting up a committee proves neither economic advantage nor an imminent conclusion, and anyone reading added value for SpaceX into it is pre-empting the outcome.
The standard should be strict: a transaction would have to justify itself against SpaceX developing on its own. Simply joining two companies does not create value for shareholders — the economic terms and the interests of each set of owners would decide that. The merger idea is not unattractive in principle; it is simply not yet a substitute for valuing the operating business.
Weighing it all, the confirmed figures — revenue growth, the swing to profit, the analyst upgrades — carry more weight than deal speculation. The profits are reported; the combination is under review. Those different degrees of certainty should not be blended together. SpaceX shows financing capacity and strong business momentum, and the more convincing success story would be proof that heavy capital spending converts into durable returns. That, rather than sheer size, is the right yardstick for the buildout.
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