SpaceX Braces for Its Defining Week: A $24.6 Billion Short Bet Meets Earnings and the Lock-Up Expiry
Published on 08/01/2026 at 07:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers are stark, and the timing is unforgiving. With a first-ever earnings report as a public company due Tuesday and a lock-up expiry just two days later, SpaceX stock has already shed more than half its value from the June 16 record high, closing Friday at 93.96 EUR in German trading — a 3.48 percent slide on the day and a fresh 52-week low. The Relative Strength Index hovers near 31, brushing against the oversold threshold that signals how thoroughly the recent selling wave has punished the equity.
The real pressure, though, isn't visible in the chart. It's in the positioning of institutional investors who have built what S3 Partners calls the largest short position in the market against a single name. As of July 29, short interest stood at 219.3 million shares — roughly 34 percent of the free float, representing a market value of $24.6 billion. That bet now eclipses even the bearish positioning against Tesla. On June 16, the day the stock peaked, short volume was a comparatively modest 23.3 million shares. S3 analyst Sam Pierson describes the wager as a "big bet on the unlock," a direct reference to Thursday's expiration of the holding period that could free up to 911.5 million additional shares for trading. Today, only about 640 million shares trade freely; post-unlock, that figure could swell by roughly 12 percent of total shares outstanding. Borrowing fees for shorts have already climbed, though market observers expect them to ease once the new supply hits the market.
Tuesday's quarterly report will mark SpaceX's debut as a reporting entity. Consensus forecasts put second-quarter revenue between $6.8 billion and $6.88 billion, with an expected loss per share of $0.23. For the full year 2025, the company booked $18.7 billion in revenue against a net loss of $4.9 billion. Looking further out, the investment trajectory is aggressive: capital expenditures are projected to jump from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion by 2028, with debt climbing to roughly $218 billion over the same period.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Amid the turbulence, the company has secured a notable counterweight. The US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $1.6 billion contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches carrying SBST satellites from Vandenberg through the end of 2027. The military is paying approximately $89 million per launch — a meaningful premium over the commercial list price of around $70 million — and with ULA and Blue Origin sidelined by technical issues, SpaceX faces no immediate competitive threat to the mission.
Wall Street, meanwhile, is fractured. Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating with a $300 price target, arguing that at current levels below $120, the market is effectively assigning zero value to SpaceX's AI business. Phillip Securities struck a far more bearish tone, initiating coverage with a "Sell" and a $75 target, citing expectations of negative free cash flow through at least 2030 and AI growth dependent on compute contracts that expire at the end of 2029. The broader consensus across 30 houses sits at "Moderate Buy" with an average target of $239.04, though the range stretches from a low of $115 to an ambitious $800.
The noise extends beyond the balance sheet. A Wall Street Journal report suggesting Tesla and SpaceX were preparing merger talks — alongside speculation about a sale of Tesla's China operations — drew a sharp dismissal from Elon Musk, who called the stories "absurdly fake news." Operationally, the 13th Starship test flight in late July delivered a mixed verdict: the upper stage successfully deployed 20 functional Starlink V3 satellites and executed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean, but the booster's landing attempt faltered when only five of 13 engines ignited, ending in a hard water landing. For investors, the week ahead condenses everything into a single, high-stakes window: operational momentum, a historic short squeeze setup, and two dates — August 4 and August 6 — that will test whether the stock's slide has finally found its floor.
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