SpaceX Faces Its Sternest Test Yet: First Earnings Report Collides With Lock-Up Expiry
Published on 08/03/2026 at 22:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell two very different stories about SpaceX right now. On one side, the company's Starlink division is adding subscribers at a breathtaking clip — from roughly 1.78 million a year ago to an expected 12.07 million by the end of the second quarter. On the other, the artificial intelligence ambitions that came with the xAI and X integration in February are burning through cash at a scale that has at least one prominent analyst running for the exits.
Those competing narratives converge this week in what amounts to the company's first major examination as a publicly traded entity. SpaceX reports second-quarter earnings Tuesday after the market close, followed by a management conference call the same evening. Just two days later, on August 6, the first tranche of a staggered lock-up period expires, freeing a large block of previously restricted shares for trading. The combination has investors bracing for outsized volatility.
A Fresh Sell Rating Lands at an Awkward Moment
The skepticism isn't confined to the options market or the short-seller community. Phillip Securities analyst Glenn Thum initiated coverage with a sell rating and a $75 price target just one day before the earnings debut. Thum, ranked in the top 5 percent of more than 12,000 tracked Wall Street analysts by TipRanks, argues that the market is overestimating SpaceX's AI business. That segment generated $3.2 billion in revenue in 2025 but still posted an operating loss of $6.4 billion despite years of investment.
His more troubling projection concerns cash burn. Thum expects SpaceX to report negative free cash flow at least through 2030, with cumulative losses potentially reaching $90 billion. He's more constructive on Starlink, describing the satellite internet service as the company's profit engine and its only division with meaningful earnings — though he anticipates slower subscriber growth as competition intensifies. On the launch side, Thum acknowledges SpaceX's "dominant launch franchise" but notes that launch services accounted for just 22 percent of 2025 revenue. Starship, he says, won't become a genuine growth driver until it demonstrates successful orbital deliveries.
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The Bearish Bet Keeps Building
Short sellers have been adding to their positions with conviction. Short interest has climbed to 219.3 million shares, representing roughly $24.6 billion, placing SpaceX among the most heavily shorted large-cap stocks in the U.S. market. Sam Pierson of S3 Partners frames the prevailing bearish thesis succinctly: the big wager is that the earnings report will contain nothing capable of absorbing the coming wave of unlocked shares.
Borrowing costs for short positions have also risen ahead of the event. Pierson notes that investors holding positions beyond the coming week are paying a premium for the privilege — though borrowing should become considerably cheaper once the lock-up passes.
The stock's technical picture reinforces the tension. Shares closed Monday at €97.38, up 3.64 percent, after first touching a new 52-week low of €91.04 earlier in the session. The intraday reversal offered some relief, but the equity remains roughly 50 percent below its June 16 peak of €194.46. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 35.0, approaching oversold territory without confirming a trend reversal. Annualized 30-day volatility of 54.51 percent underscores just how violent the swings around these events could become.
What Wall Street Expects From the Print
Analyst consensus calls for second-quarter revenue of $6.88 billion — the secondary source pegs the figure at $6.82 billion, implying growth of around 67 percent year over year — alongside a loss of $0.23 per share. The earnings call will likely focus on Starlink's trajectory, the commercialization timeline for Starship, and the roadmap for the AI division, which plans roughly $10.2 billion in related investments for the quarter. That sum could easily overshadow operating profits from launch services and satellite connectivity.
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The operational calendar leading into the report was busy. On July 24, Starship completed its 13th test flight, deploying the new Starlink V3 generation in orbit for the first time. A Falcon 9 launch on August 1 added 24 more Starlink satellites. Adding to the unusual backdrop: a spent Falcon 9 upper stage from January 2025 is on a collision course with the moon, with impact expected Wednesday on the lunar day side — an event astronomers plan to study for crater and dust-ejecta data.
CEO Elon Musk weighed in on the recent share slide Monday, publicly characterizing the decline as a buying opportunity. The market will render its own verdict Tuesday evening, when the first quarterly report since June's record IPO determines whether investors view SpaceX primarily as a launch and satellite operator — or as an AI infrastructure bet with an extraordinarily expensive price tag.
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