SpaceX's $1.6 Billion Space Force Win Caps a Week of Whiplash Ahead of Earnings and Lock-Up Expiry
Published on 07/31/2026 at 13:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Pentagon's checkbook and the US Congress are pulling SpaceX in opposite directions this week, leaving investors to sort through the most crowded stretch of catalysts since the company's Nasdaq debut in June.
Shares of the space and defense contractor closed Friday at €99.96, up 2.48 percent, after the US Space Force awarded the company two launch contracts worth a combined $1.6 billion. The package — covering 18 Falcon 9 missions from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California through the end of 2027 — represents the largest publicly disclosed award under the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 program. At roughly €89 million per launch, the deal pushes SpaceX's Pentagon contract haul for the year to at least $7 billion.
The rebound, however, is measured against a brutal stretch. Just days earlier, the stock had touched €94.15, its lowest level since listing, and remains nearly 49 percent below its 52-week high of €194.46. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 35.8, a territory traders read as oversold, though the bounce has done little to calm the broader mood.
A Lock-Up Wave Hits Days After First Earnings
The immediate test arrives early next week. SpaceX reports its inaugural quarterly results as a public company on August 4, and just two days later, more than 930 million shares — worth roughly €100 billion at current prices — become eligible for trading as the post-IPO lock-up period expires. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas estimates that nearly four billion additional shares could free up by January 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Jonas frames the coming days as a moment of truth for short sellers, pointing to potential catalysts such as more than two gigawatts of additional compute capacity and expanding cloud partnerships. But he also flags capital expenditures exceeding €50 billion and the likelihood of further fundraising as offsetting risks. The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating with a €300 price target, while the broader analyst consensus stands at 23 buys, six holds and one sell, with an average target of €239.04.
The first earnings report will offer a baseline for the company's operating trajectory. Last year, SpaceX recorded revenue of €18.7 billion against a net loss of €4.9 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue reached €4.7 billion with a loss of €4.3 billion. Starlink, the satellite internet division, remains profitable and grew roughly 50 percent year over year.
Congressional Pressure Mounts Over Data Center Emissions
The military windfall arrives amid escalating political scrutiny. Representative Frank Pallone, the top Democrat on the House Energy Committee, is demanding documents and a tour of SpaceX's data centers and power plants around Memphis, Tennessee. Pallone has told CEO Elon Musk that SpaceXAI's gas-fired turbines, operating without emissions controls, pose a "massive health risk" to the region. The committee says at least 60 turbines have been deployed for the Colossus 2 facility in Mississippi, all running without air quality permits, and describes them as the largest source of pollution in the Memphis area. SpaceX has not responded to requests for comment; the deadline for compliance is August 11.
The facilities at the center of the dispute — the Colossus data centers, three installations packed with Nvidia processors — were originally built by xAI before SpaceX absorbed Musk's startup.
Merger Speculation Adds Another Variable
Complicating the picture further, a Wall Street Journal report Thursday said Tesla executives are exploring a separation from the company's China business — via spin-off, sale or closure of the Shanghai plant, which produces more than half of Tesla's deliveries — to clear the path for a potential Tesla-SpaceX combination. The logic, per the report, is that SpaceX's status as a US military contractor makes Chinese operations within the same corporate structure a regulatory liability. Musk dismissed the story as "fake news" to Reuters, though he acknowledged growing overlap between the two companies during Tesla's earnings call in late July. JPMorgan analysts see Chinese approval processes as a practical obstacle to any merger, while SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell has reportedly mused that a combination would simplify Musk's life.
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Competitive Moat Widens as Rivals Stumble
The Space Force award also underscores how far SpaceX has pulled ahead of its launch competitors. Industry observers note that only SpaceX currently combines the flight cadence, ready Falcon 9 hardware and West Coast infrastructure needed for a campaign of this scale. United Launch Alliance remains mired in a technical investigation into a faulty separation system on its Vulcan rocket, while Blue Origin is still working toward the launch frequency required for its larger New Glenn vehicle.
The launch segment itself contributed €4.1 billion in revenue and €653 million in EBITDA last year, giving the new contract meaningful weight within the broader business. The Federal Aviation Administration, meanwhile, has proposed loosening environmental rules for commercial launches — a move drawing criticism from environmental groups but potentially accelerating approval timelines for future Starship flights.
With the earnings report, the lock-up expiry and the unresolved Tesla question all converging within days, the stock's annualized 30-day volatility of 55 percent — or 65 percent, depending on the measurement window — looks unlikely to subside anytime soon. The stock sits just 6.17 percent above its late-July low, a reminder of how thin the margin for error remains.
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