SpaceX's $500 Price Target Meets a $70 Fair Value Call as Capex and Merger Talks Muddy the Picture
Published on 10/22/2026 at 08:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Wall Street's two loudest voices on SpaceX are now shouting in opposite directions. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth lifted his price target to $500 from $240 on Wednesday, keeping his positive rating and more than doubling his estimates for the coming fiscal years. Morningstar, by contrast, nudged its estimated fair value up to just $70 from $62 — and warned that the valuation may already bake in decades of growth.
The gap between those two numbers is the story. It says less about whether SpaceX is executing — the third-quarter figures suggest it is — and more about how much of a still-unwritten future investors are willing to pay for today.
A quarter that finally crossed the line
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.58 billion in the third quarter of 2026, up 161% year over year, and net income of $4.4 billion. Revenue beat expectations, according to Reuters. It marked the company's first quarterly profit since its IPO — a milestone that turns at least part of the bull case from narrative into arithmetic.
The mix matters as much as the total. Artificial intelligence now contributes the largest slice of revenue, while Starlink is the biggest profit engine. Those are not the same thing, and the distinction deserves to survive into any valuation: revenue leadership and earnings power are separate claims.
The Super Intelligence AI unit alone generated $7.6 billion in the summer quarter, a jump of 830% from a year earlier — more than half of group revenue. That kind of growth explains the enthusiasm behind the higher targets, but it also raises the stakes on everything that has to keep pace with it: power supply, infrastructure and financing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
JPMorgan's model looks for $254 billion in revenue for 2027 and roughly $400 billion in annualized revenue by the end of that year. Those are forecasts, not results, and the $500 target leans on SpaceX reaching an entirely different economic scale in short order.
The bill behind the growth
Capital spending is where the optimism gets tested. Capex in the third quarter totaled $19.6 billion, nearly triple the year-earlier figure. Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen guided to $35 billion–$40 billion of outlays in the fourth quarter.
Johnsen has argued that new computing capacity pays for itself in under a year at current prices — a forceful case for the spending, provided the qualifier travels with it. "At current prices" is not a permanent return guarantee, and a single strong quarter does not settle the question of what the whole buildout eventually earns.
That is the real fault line between the two ratings. JPMorgan is describing an enormous opportunity; Morningstar is flagging a heavy burden of expectations. Both can be true at once, and neither is refuted by a good quarter.
Merger chatter adds a second variable
Elon Musk injected a fresh strategic angle on Tuesday, saying SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees of independent board members to explore a possible combination. No terms have been agreed. What exists is a negotiating structure, not a transaction — and investors should keep that distinction firmly in mind when reading the stock's reaction.
The shares rose 7.9% on Tuesday, a move Reuters tied to the strong business figures and the merger talks. The advance came against a mixed news backdrop rather than a clean one.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Operational noise and political risk
SpaceX called off a planned Falcon 9 launch of 27 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg on Tuesday, with media reports pointing to an apparent technical issue; the company was aiming for a later attempt.
There is also a political dimension. Reuters reported on October 15 that the White House had directed Pentagon officials to slow the Starshield service for the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian representatives described restrictions on military communications and drone operations.
Taken together, the picture is of a company whose growth is now quantified in the billions, whose merger option remains open but unsigned, and whose expected capital outlays and operational constraints each pose valuation questions of their own. The next test is not more imagination — it is profitable growth after the spending.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 22 October
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
