SpaceX's Double Test: First Earnings as a Public Company Meets the Expiry of Its Lock-Up
Published on 08/03/2026 at 04:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar has rarely looked this crowded for a newly listed company. SpaceX reports its inaugural quarterly results as a publicly traded entity on Tuesday, and just 48 hours later, the first lock-up restriction since its June IPO lifts, freeing hundreds of millions of shares that insiders have been waiting to sell. The stock enters this two-front gauntlet trading within a hair of its all-time low.
A Stock Under Pressure
The market's mood was already sour by Friday's close. Shares fell 3.48 percent to EUR 93.96, leaving the equity just 0.59 percent above its 52-week trough and roughly 51.68 percent below the June peak. The 14-day relative strength index sits at 31.0, a reading that typically flags oversold conditions and often precedes volatile sessions. The recent slide has been relentless: down more than six percent over the past week and over 33 percent across the last 30 days.
What makes this pullback particularly uncomfortable is its timing. Investors are simultaneously digesting the first official look at SpaceX's books and bracing for a wave of supply when the lock-up expires on August 6. Up to 911.5 million shares — worth roughly EUR 99 billion at current prices — become eligible for sale, a figure that dwarfs the small float that has been trading since the listing. Adding to the pressure, short interest already stands at around 219 million shares, equivalent to roughly a third of the free float. Further lock-up expirations later in the year suggest insider selling pressure will linger for months.
What the Numbers Are Expected to Show
When SpaceX releases its second-quarter report after Tuesday's close — with a webcast scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on X — analysts expect revenue of approximately $6.9 billion, a 68 percent jump year over year. That would build on a first quarter in which the company posted $4.6 billion in sales, up from $4.06 billion in the prior-year period, though the net loss ballooned from $528 million to $4.2 billion. The full-year consensus sits near $39 billion in revenue, with forecasts climbing to $73 billion by 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Two engines are driving the growth story. Starlink, the satellite internet division, ended the first quarter with 10.3 million subscribers and generated $3.3 billion in revenue — roughly 70 percent of the corporate total. Meanwhile, the data center and AI business is scaling rapidly, with Anthropic reportedly paying $1.25 billion monthly for compute capacity and Alphabet committing over $900 million. Estimates for AI-related revenue in the quarter range from $818 million to $2.18 billion, with AI-specific capital expenditures expected around $7.7 billion and total capex near $12.94 billion.
Options markets are pricing a post-earnings move of 14 to 15 percent in either direction, with implied volatility on Friday's options at 163 percent. The setup leaves little room for a muted reaction.
Wall Street's Split Personality
The analyst community is sharply divided on valuation. Colin Canfield of Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed his $246 price target ahead of the report, keeping him among the most bullish voices. Bernstein initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $239 target, citing the reusability of the Starship rocket, plans to build semiconductor capacity for up to 170,000 satellites, regulatory tailwinds from the FAA, and the expansion of orbital data centers as key value drivers.
Others counsel patience. Brett Schafer of Motley Fool has warned about thin margins in reselling AI compute and flagged the lock-up expiry as a near-term overhang. Morningstar had already set its fair value well below the IPO price before trading began. Jefferies' Aniket Shah, meanwhile, pushed back against governance-focused critics, arguing that checklist-driven skepticism could cause investors to miss long-term gains.
The valuation debate is stark: SpaceX trades at roughly 77 times sales, a multiple that exceeds Palantir's 57, suggesting the market still prices in aggressive growth despite the recent losses.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Retail Investors Have Other Priorities
While institutions debate multiples and margins, the retail crowd that received around 30 percent of the IPO allocation has different concerns. In the investor forum SpaceX opened ahead of its first earnings call, the most-upvoted questions centered on Starship launch footage, the role of the Shiba Inu mascot "Asteroid," and whether the rocket could be painted pink. A question about AI business profitability ranked only 183rd in popularity.
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, however, is taking the pullback seriously. Ark views SpaceX as a "critical building block for the space economy" and projects gross profits in the hundreds of billions by 2030, driven primarily by Starlink. One Motley Fool analyst cautioned that entry still looks premature at current levels.
The week ahead will test whether operational momentum can outweigh the technical and supply headwinds. Strong results could counter the oversold conditions; a disappointment would land on an already thin trading base — just days before millions of additional shares become sellable for the first time.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 3 August
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