SpaceX's First Earnings Debut: A Blowout Quarter Overshadowed by a $116 Billion Share Overhang
Published on 08/05/2026 at 15:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers were everything SpaceX investors could have hoped for. The stock's reaction told a different story.
On Tuesday, the company delivered its inaugural quarterly report as a publicly traded entity, crushing Wall Street expectations on nearly every metric. Revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, comfortably ahead of the roughly $6.8 billion analysts had penciled in. The net loss narrowed to $541 million — or 9 cents per share — a far cry from the $2 billion-plus deficit some forecasters had braced for. Adjusted EBITDA hit $3.5 billion, nearly triple the prior-year figure.
Yet by Wednesday, the shares were trading at €97.16 in German markets, down 10.7% from Tuesday's close of €108.80. The sell-off leaves the stock just 6.72% above its 52-week low of €91.04, set only on August 3, and more than half below June's record high of €194.46. Over the past month, the equity has shed more than 30% of its value.
The disconnect between the fundamentals and the price action comes down to a single word: capex.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The $18.4 Billion Question
Capital expenditures exploded to $18.4 billion in the quarter — six times the year-ago level and well above the roughly $13 billion FactSet consensus. Of that sum, $15.8 billion went into AI infrastructure alone. The AI segment did deliver eye-popping growth, with revenue climbing 247% to $2.56 billion, but it also posted an operating loss of $1.26 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen pushed back on the skeptics, arguing the AI investments carry a payback period of under a year, underpinned by new cloud contracts worth $6.7 billion that take effect in October. Management is targeting an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by December.
The market's anxiety, however, isn't just about the spending — it's about the timing. The lock-up expiration arrives Thursday, August 6, and it's a big one.
A Historic Share Release
As many as 911.5 million insider shares — currently locked up and valued at more than $110 billion — become tradable this week. That's roughly 20% of all restricted shares and a package worth around $116 billion. With the current free float sitting below 280.1 million shares, the tradable supply could nearly triple overnight.
A second tranche of approximately 10% of shares remains gated behind a price trigger: those only unlock if the stock trades 30% above its IPO price, a level not yet reached.
The overhang has already taken a toll. SpaceX's market capitalization has fallen by more than a trillion dollars since the June peak. Short interest stands at roughly 220 million shares, or about 34% of the float — a bet that the lock-up expiry will flood the market with supply.
Starlink Remains the Engine
Beneath the AI narrative, Starlink continues to carry the operational weight. The satellite-internet business grew revenue 66% to $4.3 billion, while subscriber numbers doubled year-over-year to 12 million across 167 countries. The catch: average revenue per user slipped 22% to $66 per month.
CEO Elon Musk used the earnings call to sketch an ambitious trajectory, suggesting Starlink could capture the majority of global internet traffic within a decade and pulling forward his trillion-dollar revenue target to 2030 from 2031. He also confirmed an exclusivity arrangement with Nvidia, committing SpaceX to the chipmaker's upcoming Vera Rubin architecture.
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The operational cadence remains relentless. On August 4, a Falcon 9 launched 24 more Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base — the 90th Falcon 9 mission of 2026. NASA and SpaceX have meanwhile completed management briefings for the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station, currently slated for mid-September. Musk also flagged the 14th Starship test flight for August, which would feature the first attempt to catch the upper stage at the launch tower — a maneuver central to the fully reusable rocket's economics.
Analysts Split on the AI Bet
The investment-banking community is sharply divided on how to value the company's AI ambitions. Piper Sandler cut its price target from $156 to $140, holding a "Neutral" rating and citing concerns about both the lock-up and the heavy spending. Others are far more bullish: JPMorgan and BofA see $240 and $235 respectively, Morgan Stanley targets $300, Raymond James goes as high as $800, and Mizuho sits at a more conservative $200.
The stock ended Tuesday with a 9.46% rebound from Monday's low — a move that some market participants read as positioning for a "clearing event," the theory being that once the lock-up passes, the selling pressure lifts and a firmer floor emerges. The technicals support that interpretation: the RSI has climbed to 46.2, exiting oversold territory without flashing overheated, though 30-day annualized volatility of nearly 65% underscores how frayed nerves remain.
SpaceX ended the quarter with roughly $100 billion in cash and securities — a formidable cushion for its rocket and satellite programs. Whether that's enough to reassure investors staring down Thursday's share flood is another matter entirely. The stock currently trades nearly 20% above Monday's trough, but the real test begins when the lock-up expires and the market discovers just how many holders are ready to sell.
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