SpaceX's Lockup Release and FCC Win Land in the Same Bruising Week for Tech

SpaceX shareholders had two very different pieces of news to digest this week, and the market's reaction told only part of the story. The stock fell 9.0% in one session after Reuters reported that as many as 1.3 billion shares held by employees and early investors had been cleared for resale — a supply overhang that weighed on sentiment. A separate 7.7% slide came as the wider technology sector sold off on worries about the soaring cost of AI buildouts and uncertain returns, with SpaceX caught in the downdraft according to media reports.

Those two declines frame a week in which the company also cleared a regulatory hurdle and posted numbers that few growth stories can match.

Eligibility Is Not Evidence of Selling

The 1.3 billion figure describes the potential size of the unlocked stake, nothing more. The release came as part of a staggered lifting of resale restrictions, and it does not establish that the holders actually sold. Treating the number as executed volume — or as proof that early backers have already headed for the exits — overstates what is known. Additional selling permissions can sharpen fears of a larger float, but they cannot tell an investor what share of the move was driven by these shareholders. A mathematically possible offering is not demonstrated selling pressure.

UBS Raises Its Target

Against that backdrop, UBS analyst John Hodulik lifted his price target on SpaceX to $230 from $210 on Wednesday, keeping a Buy rating. The revision followed the company's business figures. The two developments answer different questions: the analyst call assesses the company's prospects, while the lockup release changes what existing holders are permitted to do. A bullish view does not automatically neutralize the drag from a potentially growing supply of stock.

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A Profit Swing Built on AI

The numbers behind the UBS note are striking. SpaceX reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $14.58 billion, up 161% year over year. AI revenue reached $7.56 billion, according to company figures, and net profit came in at $4.4 billion — a sharp reversal from a loss of $1.1 billion a year earlier. That is a clear improvement in group earnings, though it is not a standalone profitability proof for the AI operations. Strong top-line growth argues against dismissing the AI business as mere future promise; it does not settle whether the economics of further expansion are fully resolved.

Spectrum: One Deal Done, One Still Pending

On the regulatory front, the FCC yesterday approved the acquisition of additional licenses from Tristar by SpaceX subsidiary Starlink Spectrum Holdings. The decision covers three licenses totaling 15 MHz, and the agency also granted exceptions for satellite use. A granted approval carries more weight than an expansion plan — it removes a regulatory obstacle and permits the licensed use — but deriving a specific revenue contribution from it would be premature.

Separately, SpaceX has agreed to buy a nationwide low-band portfolio from Grain Management, comprising up to 14 MHz of paired spectrum. That deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027 and remains subject to regulatory and other customary closing conditions. The distinction matters: the Tristar approval is in hand, while the Grain purchase is not yet complete. Lumping the two together as fully secured expansion would overstate where things stand — just as ignoring the approved rights because of broader AI jitters would understate them.

Merger Talk and a Catch Attempt

Investors are also weighing possible changes at the corporate level. SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger, but Reuters reported Tuesday that no transaction terms have been agreed. A combination may not happen at all. Elon Musk has called the idea a good one.

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There is also a technical date on the calendar: according to CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX plans to catch both rocket stages on the next Starship test flight, an attempt scheduled for November 2026. It is a planned test, not a milestone already achieved.

What the Week Actually Proved

Neither blanket AI enthusiasm nor blanket skepticism holds up. SpaceX can point to powerful growth, a swing to profit and a cleared spectrum approval. The measure that still matters most is what durable earnings emerge from further expansion — the approval strengthens the operating picture without replacing the investment math. And for anyone reading the session's decline, the possible expansion of tradeable supply remains the concrete, documented factor; actual sales across the full unlocked amount are not. Neither the merger talks nor the planned test flight changes that distinction.

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