SpaceX's Public Debut Reaches Its Defining Moment: First Earnings Meet a Lock-Up Wave
Published on 08/04/2026 at 09:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The honeymoon period for SpaceX as a publicly traded company is officially over. When the space giant's shares began trading in June, the listing was hailed as a record-breaking event, with the company's valuation briefly touching nearly three trillion dollars. Now, just weeks later, the stock is trading near its lows, and the company faces a gauntlet of challenges that will test whether its long-term vision can withstand short-term market pressure.
At the center of this storm is a pivotal 48-hour window. The company is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public entity after the market closes on Tuesday, followed almost immediately by the expiration of its first major lock-up period on August 6. That expiry could release as many as 911.5 million shares onto the market—a tranche valued at roughly $100 to $120 billion that would more than double the free float. A second, even larger block of 455.8 million shares remains tied to a performance condition: it will only be released if the stock closes at least 30 percent above its $135 IPO price on five of ten trading days—a threshold that looks increasingly out of reach given the recent slide.
The market's mood ahead of the report is best described as cautiously optimistic at best. On Monday, the stock closed at €99.30, up 5.67 percent, a bounce that traders largely attributed to positioning ahead of the earnings release rather than a genuine shift in sentiment. The broader picture is far less flattering: over the past 30 trading days, the shares have shed 29.29 percent, leaving them just 9.07 percent above their 52-week low from August 3. Technical indicators point to a stock approaching oversold territory, with the relative strength index at 37.1.
That weakness has not gone unnoticed by short sellers, who have piled into the stock with unusual conviction. Short interest now stands at 34 percent of the free float, and bears are sitting on paper profits of $8.3 billion since the company's market debut, according to CNBC. The combination of a weak share price, an impending supply of shares, and aggressive bearish positioning has turned Tuesday's earnings call into a potential inflection point—for better or worse.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The numbers themselves are expected to paint a divided picture of the business. Analysts are forecasting quarterly revenue of approximately $6.9 billion, a 68 percent increase year over year, with a per-share loss ranging from $0.23 to $0.35. It will be the first time the public gets a genuine look at the company's earning power since the IPO.
What they will likely see is a company where one segment is thriving while others burn through capital at a staggering rate. Starlink, the satellite internet division, delivered operating income of $1.188 billion on revenue of $3.257 billion in the first quarter of 2026, translating to an impressive 63 percent EBITDA margin. The business now counts 10.3 million subscribers and accounts for 61 percent of the company's 2025 revenue, making it the only reliable profit engine in the group.
The artificial intelligence segment tells a very different story. For fiscal 2025, the division generated $3.2 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $6.35 billion. The company has committed to massive capital expenditures to fuel its AI ambitions—$20.7 billion in 2025, with $22.8 billion already planned for 2026. For the upcoming quarter alone, observers expect $10.2 billion in AI-related investments out of total capex of $14.05 billion. A lease agreement with Anthropic worth roughly $15 billion annually, cancellable with 90 days' notice, underscores just how much is riding on this bet. In effect, Starlink's profits are currently bankrolling the company's AI aspirations.
The company has also been on an acquisition spree, most notably purchasing AI coding startup Cursor for approximately $60 billion in stock, alongside multi-billion-dollar monthly GPU contracts with both Google and Anthropic. This diversification has made the investment thesis considerably more complex, with critics pointing to deep unprofitability and a valuation of $1.5 trillion that rests primarily on the Starlink franchise.
Wall Street's analysts are deeply split on how to value this story. The consensus among 34 covering analysts is a "Buy" rating with an average price target of $236.71, though the range of individual targets is remarkably wide—from $62 to $800. Bernstein's Douglas Harned recommends buying with a target of $239, while Morgan Stanley is even more bullish with an "Overweight" rating and a $300 target, a level that would imply a market valuation of nearly four trillion dollars. The broader consensus sits at $233.18, supported by 23 buy ratings, six holds, and two sells.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
At the other end of the spectrum, Morningstar warns of a bear case scenario at just $63, while Phillip Securities has initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $75 target. The firm's rationale: the launch business is dominant and satellite internet is growing quickly, but the AI ambitions remain pure speculation.
Adding to the uncertainty is the latest Starship test flight. During the 13th flight on July 24, the booster successfully deployed Starlink V3 satellites but failed to achieve a controlled water landing. Given that Starship is considered crucial to the company's future valuation, management's comments on the program during the earnings call will be closely scrutinized. Investors will also be listening for any remarks on the rumored merger with Tesla—a topic that has reportedly put the carmaker's China business in question.
With the earnings report, the lock-up expiry, a heavy short interest, and a divided analyst community all converging within days of each other, the coming sessions will likely determine whether SpaceX's stock can stabilize or whether the post-IPO slide has further to run.
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