SpaceX's Quiet Money Engine: Military Launches Underwrite the Starship Gamble
Published on 09/28/2026 at 15:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
SpaceX is preparing for what could be its most significant technical milestone yet — the first orbital flight of its Starship system — even as the company's day-to-day finances rest on a far less glamorous foundation: a steady drumbeat of classified military launches and multibillion-dollar government contracts.
The 14th Starship test flight is scheduled for Monday, with the company aiming to send the upper stage into Earth orbit for the first time. Aboard are 26 Starlink V3 satellites, three of which carry cameras to record how the heat shield behaves during the journey. According to the flight plan, the upper stage is to splash down in the Pacific Ocean after roughly 8.5 hours in orbit, while the booster is set to land in the Gulf of Mexico.
Reused Hardware, Refined Software
Preparations have proceeded without incident. The stages were stacked on the launch pad last Wednesday, and a fueling dress rehearsal on Thursday was completed successfully. For this flight, SpaceX is reusing individual heat shield components for the first time — two tiles on the upper stage that were recovered from an earlier test. The heavy-lift booster also carries technical adjustments, including hardware changes for improved engine filtering and software modifications designed to boost reliability during engine re-ignition.
While the world's attention tends to fixate on such spectacle, the company's actual economic value is being decided elsewhere. Real market power in aerospace comes not from announcements but from the dependable execution of government duties — and for SpaceX, that means an ever-deeper entanglement with U.S. security and defense structures.
On Saturday, a Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base carrying the classified USSF-385 mission for the U.S. Space Force. Media reports noted it was the second highly sensitive military operation in quick succession: only on September 16 had a Falcon rocket launched the USSF-259 mission from the same base.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
That cadence raises a pointed question for investors. Does SpaceX even need grand drama to secure its market position when the routine business is already so lucratively locked in? The Space Force relies on launch platforms that operate almost like an assembly line for its secret payloads. In an industry scarred by decades of delays and budget overruns, the Falcon 9 has established a level of reliability previously out of reach.
Reusability is no longer a theoretical promise. On September 19, a Falcon 9 carried 27 of the company's own Starlink satellites into orbit, with the booster completing its 17th flight. The ability to fly the same stage repeatedly slashes cost per launch and secures margins that traditional defense and aerospace contractors can only envy.
Wall Street Stays Bullish
Equity markets are reflecting interest in the company's operational progress. At Friday's close, the stock stood at EUR 130.36, a modest daily gain of 0.2%, putting its market capitalization at EUR 1,720.59 billion. The shares were trading at EUR 131.88 today, up 1.1%.
Analysts at major research houses remain confident about the group's long-term prospects. On September 21, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reaffirmed his "Buy" rating and left his price target at $300. On Friday, Brett Linzey of Mizuho Securities followed suit, confirming a "Buy" rating with a $200 target. Both see the maturing operational readiness of the Starship fleet as a key driver of future earnings growth.
A Moat Built on Government Trust
The partnership with state agencies extends well beyond the Space Force. The depth of SpaceX's ties to U.S. government infrastructure is also visible in its work with NASA, which awarded a contract modification worth $946 million for three additional crewed missions to the International Space Station. The agreement now runs through 2030, with total contract value rising to $5.92 billion.
Such orders give the company financial predictability stretching years into the future. For Washington, SpaceX is no longer one contractor among many but an indispensable pillar of national space strategy. That creates a moat competitors will struggle to cross: neither institutional clients nor the Pentagon hand sensitive missions to unproven providers so long as the established option performs without a hitch.
The upshot is that SpaceX's true strength lies less in the shine of future visions than in the sober reality of its launch pads. As long as the company keeps ferrying secret government payloads into orbit on a weekly rhythm and locking in billions in NASA contracts, its economic foundation holds. For capital markets, what ultimately counts is that proven capacity for flawless repetition — with Monday's orbital attempt serving as the next test of whether the vision can keep pace with the business.
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