Tesla’s Robotaxi Rival Zoox Gets the Green Light as the Stock Sinks to a New Low
Published on 07/30/2026 at 17:13 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Amazon’s self-driving subsidiary Zoox has secured regulatory approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to deploy up to 2,500 autonomous vehicles without steering wheels on US roads. For Tesla, which has staked its entire valuation narrative on winning the robotaxi race, the timing could hardly be worse. The news landed just as Tesla shares touched a fresh 52-week trough of €259.75 on Wednesday, extending a monthly slide that now stands at 29.33%.
The stock managed a modest bounce on Thursday, climbing 2.44% to €266.85. But the question hanging over the name is whether this represents the beginning of a genuine recovery or merely a dead-cat bounce before the next leg lower.
The Numbers Behind the Slide
Tesla’s second-quarter earnings report, released on July 22, lit the fuse. Revenue came in at $28.24 billion, modestly ahead of expectations, but the underlying picture was far uglier. The automotive margin excluding regulatory credits slipped to 16.9%, while free cash flow swung to a negative $1.09 billion. Operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, down from 4.1% a year earlier, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 missed the consensus estimate of $0.50 by a wide margin.
The culprit is a deliberate strategy: Tesla has ramped capital spending by 142% year-over-year to $5.79 billion, pouring money into artificial intelligence infrastructure, the Dojo supercomputer, and robotaxi development. For 2026, the company has flagged investments exceeding $25 billion — a bet on the future that completely outstrips current cash generation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?
A Technical Picture That Screams Oversold
The 14-day relative strength index has plunged to 24.9, deep in oversold territory and the most extreme reading since March 2025. Back then, a similar RSI level preceded a rally of roughly 90% over the following months. The current RSI reading of 28.6 cited in some analyses tells the same story: the stock is technically stretched to the downside.
Tesla now trades below every major moving average, with the 200-day average at €354.26 representing a gap of nearly 25% to the current price. The 50-day moving average sits at €343.45. With annualized volatility running at 63.58%, sharp moves in either direction are a statistical probability.
The Bull Case: Record Deliveries and a Growing FSD Base
Not everything is deteriorating. Tesla delivered more vehicles in the second quarter than in any previous Q2, beating expectations. Active Full Self-Driving subscriptions jumped 56% quarter-over-quarter to 1.48 million. The robotaxi service has expanded beyond Texas and California, launching in Miami — though analysts caution this remains a small step rather than a breakthrough.
Some institutional investors are buying the dip. Arkadios Wealth Advisors and Centaurus Financial have added to their positions this year. The average analyst price target stands at roughly €346-€350, implying upside of 30-35% from current levels. A significant portion of sell-side analysts still see room for recovery if operational execution improves.
The Bear Case: Costs Are Running Away While Revenue Lags
The counterargument rests on a widening chasm between spending and near-term returns. Operating costs surged 47% in the second quarter to $4.35 billion, driven by AI and R&D investments. Free cash flow remains negative, and CEO Elon Musk has acknowledged that meaningful robotaxi revenue is unlikely before 2027.
The competitive landscape is growing more concrete by the day. Tesla operates roughly 42 robotaxis in Texas. Waymo already has 577 vehicles approved there and is logging 500,000 paid rides per week across ten cities. Now Zoox has regulatory clearance for 2,500 purpose-built autonomous vehicles — vehicles that have no steering wheel and are designed from the ground up for driverless operation, not retrofitted from consumer cars.
On the robotics front, Musk himself has warned that Optimus will be “the most difficult product to scale that Tesla has ever built,” given the absence of an established supply chain. Production in limited volume is slated for later in 2026, but the path from prototype to profitable mass production remains murky.
Tesla at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Comes Next
The stock is caught between two powerful forces. On one side, the technical setup argues for a bounce: extreme oversold readings have historically preceded sharp reversals. On the other, the fundamental headwinds — contracting margins, negative free cash flow, and a robotaxi timeline that keeps receding — suggest the pressure may not be over.
For a sustainable turnaround, Tesla needs to demonstrate that automotive margins have found a floor and that the billions flowing into Dojo, FSD, and Optimus are translating into commercialization milestones. Until then, a market capitalization of roughly €1.07 trillion remains more dependent on promises about the future than on the reality of the balance sheet.
The next catalysts to watch include further robotaxi fleet expansion updates, progress toward Optimus production, and the third-quarter earnings report due this autumn. If the stock holds above its recent low and the RSI turns higher from oversold territory, a technical recovery toward the 50-day moving average is plausible. A decisive break below €259.75, however, would signal that the selling has further to run.
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Tesla Stock: New Analysis - 30 July
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