Thyssenkrupp: A Binding Hydrogen Permit, a Trimmed 15-Euro Target and the Listing That Is Only Being Prepared
Published on 10/30/2026 at 12:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Thyssenkrupp has cleared a regulatory hurdle on the green-steel side of its restructuring, but the market's attention is fixed on a different question: whether the conglomerate can carry off the spin-off of Steel Europe. The two storylines converged this week, with a binding funding amendment on one flank and a cautious analyst note on the other.
Funding certainty, not commercial certainty
Thyssenkrupp Steel confirmed a legally binding amended funding notice for its tkH2Steel decarbonisation project, and the European Commission has verified that the changes comply with EU state-aid rules. That gives the programme planning security it previously lacked. It does not, however, amount to proof that the economics will work once the plant is running.
At the heart of tkH2Steel sits a direct-reduction plant designed for an annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes of directly reduced iron, with a yearly savings potential of up to 3.5 million tonnes of CO?. Those figures describe the ambition rather than the outcome. The real test is whether Thyssenkrupp can secure a commercially viable supply of the energy carriers the facility needs.
Gas first, hydrogen later
The plant is built to run on natural gas, hydrogen or a blend of the two. According to the company, even operation on natural gas alone delivers a CO? reduction of more than 50% compared with today's coal-based blast-furnace route — meaning the climate benefit does not hinge on an immediate switch to pure hydrogen.
That flexibility underpins the intended transition. The hydrogen share is meant to climb step by step until full hydrogen operation is reached, and Thyssenkrupp explicitly ties that path to the availability of the energy carrier, its cost-effectiveness and customer demand. The funding decision does nothing to remove those conditions. A fresh hydrogen tender is due to launch shortly, making procurement the next concrete milestone.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
DZ Bank trims the fair value
Against that backdrop, DZ Bank cut its fair value for the shares from 16 to 15 euros yesterday while keeping its "Buy" rating. The analysts acknowledged progress on the overhaul but declined to attach a higher valuation to it. The prior day's 2.3% gain in the share price does not settle the matter either — a single positive session is a poor yardstick for weighing completed changes against the larger tasks still ahead.
The bank named its key test explicitly: the independence of Steel Europe is the bigger challenge. That shifts the focus away from the number of structural measures already closed and toward whether Thyssenkrupp can find a workable route for this one too.
A listing being prepared, not a listing agreed
Chief executive Miguel LĂłpez told Reuters on Wednesday that the group is preparing Steel Europe as a possible next initial public offering. A sale is not the stated goal, following unsuccessful attempts to find partners. The wording matters: what is being prepared is an option, not a completed flotation. Investors can treat the preparation as a strategic prospect, but should not read it as a guaranteed completion or a fixed contribution to value.
The optimistic case rests on the ability to actually deliver announced changes, and there is one concrete precedent. The spin-off of tk accelis was completed on Wednesday with its stock-market debut. Thyssenkrupp retained 51%, and shareholders received one share in the new company for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares held. DZ Bank classified the carve-out yesterday as a further transformation milestone.
Reading Wednesday's price move correctly
The sharp apparent discount in the share price on Wednesday was attributed by dpa-AFX to the separation of the spun-off stake. No operational setback can be inferred from that alone — and by the same token, the subsequent recovery proves nothing about an improvement in the business. A completed restructuring step builds confidence; it does not pre-empt the risks of the next one.
The bear case is weighty. A finished chapter does not make the following one easier, and the failed partnership attempts at Steel Europe are a reminder not to confuse possible solutions with secured outcomes. Preparing an IPO does not dispel that uncertainty. Should expectations for further structural progress disappoint, the more cautious valuation could carry more weight than the unchanged Buy recommendation — which is why cherry-picking the positive rating while ignoring the simultaneous target cut would be a risky approach.
December 8 as the next anchor
Thyssenkrupp has announced that it will publish its annual financial statements for fiscal year 2025/2026 on December 8, 2026, the next scheduled date for putting the group's finances in context. That report offers an occasion to set the financial development alongside the structural changes.
For the investment case, both must hold up: the overhaul has to advance, and the business has to support the expectations attached to it. Until then, the binding hydrogen funding notice is a step forward on the regulatory framework — while procurement and a viable transition to lower-emission steelmaking remain the decisive variables.
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