Thyssenkrupp: A Hydrogen Permit Loosens the Steel Plan, but the 15-Euro Target Says the Hard Part Is Still Ahead
Published on 10/30/2026 at 14:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two developments landed on Thyssenkrupp shareholders within a day of each other, and they pull in opposite directions. On one side, the amended funding approval for the tkH2Steel project has now become legally binding, giving the group room to ramp up hydrogen use in stages rather than along a rigid path. On the other, DZ Bank trimmed its fair value for the shares from 16 to 15 euros, keeping a "Buy" rating but declining to lift its valuation.
The market's immediate verdict was unkind. Thyssenkrupp stock fell 3.8% on the day the permit news broke. That move should not be read as a standalone judgment on the steel project, though — the previous session's 2.3% gain had already shown how little a single day's trading says about a multi-year restructuring.
What the permit actually changes
The European Commission had earlier confirmed that the adjustments comply with EU state-aid rules. The revisions were prompted by a delayed hydrogen market and higher prices — a funding framework bending to concrete difficulties in the shift toward hydrogen-based production. The amended conditions are designed to keep the project from being locked into a fixed hydrogen timetable.
That flexibility has a real economic purpose: it gives Thyssenkrupp more freedom during the transition. Whether an advantage materializes depends on procurement and execution, not on the permit itself. The scale involved is what makes the question matter. The direct-reduction plant is designed for 2.5 million tonnes of directly reduced iron per year, which turns sourcing strategy into a core part of any project assessment. Funding status alone does not answer whether the ramp-up can be made to work commercially.
Gas-fired operation as a bridge
The optimistic case does not require hydrogen to be available at full volume from day one. According to project figures, running the direct-reduction plant on natural gas already saves more than 50% CO? compared with the coal-based blast-furnace route. Decarbonization could therefore advance before hydrogen is fully deployed — a meaningful decoupling for investors, since the technical conversion would not have to wait for a mature hydrogen market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Thyssenkrupp cites a potential saving of up to 3.5 million tonnes of CO? per year. That figure is a ceiling, not an achieved result. In the favorable scenario, flexible implementation would open a route to push decarbonization forward while responding to supply difficulties.
The counterargument hasn't gone away
The serious risk sits in the very reasons for the amended conditions. A delayed hydrogen market and higher prices do not vanish because of a funding decision. The changes make those problems easier to manage; they do not solve them. If the upcoming tender fails to produce economically convincing terms, procurement could keep weighing on the conversion, and a technically feasible staged ramp-up would not equal an attractive financial outcome. Investors should judge emissions savings and earnings prospects separately.
Group structure adds another layer. Following the spinoff of the materials-trading and supply-chain unit Accelis, Thyssenkrupp still holds 51%. The listing of that unit therefore does not amount to a full separation, and both the stake's development and the steel project's execution remain relevant to the parent's valuation. A spinoff story on its own is no substitute for economic progress in the steel overhaul.
Steel Europe is the bigger test
DZ Bank named its key hurdle explicitly: the independence of Steel Europe is the larger challenge. That shifts the focus away from the number of completed structural measures and toward whether Thyssenkrupp can find a viable path for this next step too.
Chief executive Miguel López told Reuters on Wednesday that the group is preparing Steel Europe as a possible next IPO. A sale is not the stated goal, after partnership attempts came to nothing. The wording matters — a possibility is being prepared, not a completed flotation. Investors can treat the preparation as a strategic perspective, but should not infer a certain completion or a fixed contribution to value.
One step is done, and it counts for something
The positive case rests on the ability to deliver announced changes. With the debut of tk accelis on Wednesday, the spinoff was completed. Thyssenkrupp retained 51%, and shareholders received one share in the new company for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares. DZ Bank classified the spinoff as a further transformation milestone.
There is now a concrete implementation step against which further progress can be measured. A better outcome is conceivable if Thyssenkrupp follows this delivery with similar execution on the tasks ahead — not automatic proof of rising prices, but support for the expectation that the announced reorganization is being realized step by step.
Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Reading the price action correctly
The sharp optical discount on Wednesday was attributed by dpa-AFX to the carve-out of the spun-off stake. No operational setback can be derived from that alone — and equally, the subsequent recovery proves no improvement in the business. The failed partnership attempts at Steel Europe are a reminder not to confuse possible solutions with secured results; preparing an IPO does not remove that uncertainty.
A negative scenario would emerge if expectations for further structural progress go unmet. The more cautious valuation from DZ Bank could then carry more weight than its unchanged Buy rating. Picking out the positive recommendation while ignoring the simultaneous target cut would be a risky approach.
What to watch next
The next project-specific catalyst is the announced hydrogen tender, for which no start date has been given. Its content will be decisive: the market needs more than a new procedural step — it needs solid evidence on implementation. On the corporate calendar, the fixed date is 8 December 2026, when Thyssenkrupp plans to publish its annual report for fiscal 2025/26, offering an occasion to set the financial development alongside the structural changes.
Until then, the balance is this: the funding framework eases the transition, but only viable procurement terms could turn that into a more convincing economic scenario. The restructuring has to advance, and the business has to carry the expectations attached to it.
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