Thyssenkrupp: A Hydrogen Tender in the Pipeline, a Four-Hour Walkout in Schönebeck and Two Buy Calls at Lower Targets

Thyssenkrupp investors have two very different items on their plate this week. One is a four-hour warning strike at the Presta Schönebeck plant; the other is the imminent launch of a hydrogen tender for the tkH2Steel steel conversion. The first is a local labour dispute. The second is the economic test of the group's biggest industrial project. Keeping the two apart is the whole point.

160 Workers, Four Hours, One Shift

According to a report in the Volksstimme, roughly 160 employees on the early shift at Thyssenkrupp Presta Schönebeck downed tools for four hours. The walkout is tied to the collective bargaining round in the German metal and electrical industry. It concerns one shift at one site — not a group-wide production stoppage. Nor does its duration allow any reliable conclusion about the financial impact on Thyssenkrupp. Working conditions are one thing; the future structure of the group is another, and the two should not be welded into a single cause-and-effect story.

Steel Spinoff: Prepared, Not Completed

On the steel side, CEO Miguel López said on 28 October, according to Reuters, that the division is being readied as the next possible spin-off. A sale is not on the table for now, and earlier attempts to bring in partners came to nothing. That makes the spinoff a prepared option rather than a completed step — the statement describes the direction of the restructuring, not its finish line.

Two Analysts Trim, Neither Blinks

Alongside that, valuation marks have come down without any change of heart on the ratings. Deutsche Bank Research cut its price target to EUR 17 from EUR 18 on Thursday and kept its "Buy" rating. DZ Bank lowered its fair value to EUR 15 from EUR 16 the same day, sticking with "Kaufen". Both houses have pulled back their valuation approaches while leaving their positive recommendations intact — neither a downgrade of the vote nor an unchanged view of the upside.

The Hydrogen Question Is the Real One

Thyssenkrupp is also meeting the capital market today on an investor relations roadshow in London. The question for shareholders is concrete: does the more flexible use of hydrogen in the steel conversion already justify more confidence, or should firm supply terms come first? The decisive test lies in commercial execution. The funding framework creates room to manoeuvre; it does not replace a supply contract.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?

A new hydrogen tender is being prepared and, according to the company, will launch shortly. That shifts attention to an operational step rather than to regulatory cover for tkH2Steel. The binding amended notice for the project permits a gradual and more flexible ramp-up of the hydrogen share, and Thyssenkrupp Steel is preparing the tender on that basis. Whether the extra room translates into suitable procurement terms is the central question. A more flexible funding condition does not automatically produce a cheaper hydrogen offer. A staggered ramp-up could, however, help align procurement more closely with practical implementation — a possible advantage of the amended framework, not a proven success.

What Would Actually Move the Needle

The announcement itself matters less than its outcome. Only concrete agreements would show whether the permitted flexibility can be used. A favourable scenario would be a tender whose terms fit the step-by-step hydrogen ramp-up; Thyssenkrupp could then demonstrate that the adjusted funding conditions do more than help on paper. That would be a stronger signal than the procedural conclusion alone.

Support could come from better financing of the European hydrogen value chain. The European Resilience Alliance for Clean Hydrogen & Derivatives published a guideline on 27 October; its CEO members include Thyssenkrupp chief Miguel Ángel López Borrego. The alliance is calling for, among other things, double-sided hydrogen auctions and contracts for difference. These are demands, not enacted funding instruments — in a positive scenario, such frameworks could help make investments and supply relationships more reliable. No immediate relief for Thyssenkrupp can be derived from the guideline.

The opposite picture deserves equal weight: the tender could produce offers that fail to convince economically despite the wider scope. The funding framework would then remain progress on the preconditions without solving the procurement question. Regulatory certainty is not the same as secured profitability, and the alliance's demands must be read as demands — anyone inferring a more reliable financing chain from them would be getting ahead of possible political steps.

Today's roadshow has its own limits. A confirmed investor meeting is not a new operational commitment. If the exchange merely explains the known project conditions, that is no additional evidence of commercial progress. The critical investor stance is not to dismiss the funding framework, but to grant it only the significance it actually carries.

The Dates That Matter

As long as Thyssenkrupp can convert the extra scope into suitable procurement steps, the constructive scenario stays plausible. If hydrogen procurement proves commercially unattractive, expectations for the benefit of the relaxed conditions would have to be scaled back. The yardstick is execution, not approval certainty.

The next operational catalyst is the announced start of the new hydrogen tender. On the financial calendar, the group's annual report for fiscal 2025/2026 is scheduled for 8 December 2026 — the next firmly dated reference point for assessing the company's finances. Until then, the news flow supports a clean separation: the funding framework is secured, and the commercial proof of the new procurement is the next test. That is where investors should measure any added confidence.

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