Voestalpine's Furnace Timetable Holds as Analysts Trim Profit Forecasts Through 2029
Published on 11/13/2026 at 06:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Voestalpine has confirmed that its electric arc furnace projects in Linz and Donawitz remain on schedule and within budget, with commissioning targeted for the first half of 2027. The assurance lands at an awkward moment: Deutsche Bank cut its EBITDA estimates for the steelmaker's 2027 through 2029 fiscal years by 3–7% on the same day, and the stock had already slipped 2.4% following Wednesday's guidance reduction.
The two developments frame the central question facing investors. Can a company carrying out one of Europe's most ambitious steelmaking conversions absorb the combined weight of energy costs, logistics expenses and fresh US tariffs without derailing either its construction timeline or its earnings base?
A €1.15 Billion Capital Programme Meets a Thin Cash Cushion
For the 2026/27 fiscal year, Voestalpine has budgeted investments of roughly EUR 1.15 billion. About EUR 530 million had already been spent in the first half. Against that outlay, free cash flow reached just EUR 24 million — a figure the company nonetheless left unchanged in its full-year target of approximately EUR 250 million.
Management does have a working lever. Low Danube water levels forced the group to build up additional heavy-plate inventories in Linz of around 80,000 tonnes, according to its finance chief, and the company aims to draw that stock down by year-end. A successful rundown would free up capital and lend the investment programme firmer financial footing.
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Deutsche Bank Keeps Its Buy Call but Cuts Deeper
Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its buy recommendation while lowering its EBITDA projections for fiscal 2027 to 2029, citing higher energy and logistics costs alongside US tariffs. Its price target stands unchanged at EUR 63.00. UBS likewise maintained its buy rating and a EUR 64.00 target, though it characterised the company's results as negative for the shares in light of the reduced outlook.
The lowered guidance for 2026/27 now points to EBITDA of EUR 1.6–1.7 billion. Voestalpine attributed the revision to geopolitical uncertainty, elevated costs and the new US levies — the same trio of pressures running through analyst models and operational decisions alike.
Kindberg Turns a Trade Dispute Into a Headcount Decision
Nowhere is the tariff effect more tangible than at voestalpine Tubulars in Kindberg, where roughly 150 jobs are to be cut by the end of March 2027, as reported by ORF and Kronen Zeitung. US duties have made shipments of seamless oil and gas pipes to America only marginally viable, and alternative markets in the Middle East are proving difficult to develop. Voestalpine is also contesting the method used to calculate the new tariffs and is weighing legal action, according to media reports.
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Cost Cuts Run in Parallel With the Build-Out
Savings efforts extend well beyond a single site. In the HPM division, cost reductions have reached EUR 150 million, accompanied by around 850 job losses. Metal Forming is slated to shed a further 500 positions by 2028. Whether these measures offset the energy, freight and tariff headwinds will determine how much of the investment programme can be funded from operations.
The next scheduled checkpoint is the third-quarter 2026/27 report on 10 February 2027. Until then, the durability of Voestalpine's earnings assumptions — not the level of any individual price target — is likely to command the closest attention.
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