Xiaomi's August Crossroads: A Memory-Chip Squeeze and a 100,000-Unit SUV Bet Collide
Published on 08/06/2026 at 07:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell two wildly different stories about Xiaomi right now. Over 100,000 pre-orders for its new hybrid SUVs landed within a week of the order books opening. Meanwhile, the stock has shed roughly 29 percent of its value since January, closing Wednesday at €3.06 after a 1.89 percent daily decline. Rarely has the gap between operational momentum and market sentiment felt wider.
That disconnect is about to be tested from two directions at once. On August 18, the company will publish its unaudited second-quarter and first-half results — the first hard evidence of how a surge in memory-chip costs is eating into smartphone margins. Weeks later, in September, the first official delivery figures for the SkyNomad SUV line will reveal whether those pre-orders translate into actual sales.
The Memory-Chip Problem Hitting the Core Business
The nearer-term worry sits squarely in Xiaomi's smartphone heartland. Analysts at China International Capital Corporation (CICC) have flagged what they describe as mounting margin pressure for the April-to-June period, driven by sharply higher purchase prices for DRAM and NAND storage components. Memory chips rank among the most expensive individual parts in a handset, and a jump in their cost flows straight into manufacturing expenses. For a segment that has long operated on thin margins, that kind of input-cost shock can shift a full quarter's profitability.
The market has already been voting with its feet. Wednesday's close at €3.06 leaves the stock down 29.33 percent for the year — a slide that extends well beyond the storage-price story. The distance to the 200-day moving average stands at minus 17.59 percent, a technical signal that the prevailing trend remains firmly downward. Over the past twelve months, the share price has nearly halved.
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Analyst Targets vs. Cost Reality
Despite the CICC warning, the broader analyst community remains cautiously constructive. The average price target across covering houses sits at roughly HK$39.6 for the Hong Kong-listed W-shares (01810). For the upcoming quarterly report, 13 analysts project average revenue of 116.84 billion yuan and earnings per share of 0.225 yuan. Those estimates, however, were compiled before the memory-cost warning became public — leaving open the question of how severely the chip inflation will dent the actual numbers.
There's a notable contrast between the current sentiment and the signals coming from inside the company. On November 24, 2025, founder Lei Jun executed the largest insider single transaction of the past twelve months, buying shares worth HK$100 million at HK$38.58 apiece. That vote of confidence from the founder now sits well above the prevailing market price, a reminder of just how much the mood has shifted since.
The EV Bet: SkyNomad Enters Production
On the automotive side, Xiaomi has moved from announcement to assembly. Production of the SkyNomad N90 and N70 hybrid SUVs has officially commenced in Beijing, with the Chinese market launch slated for September 2026. Pricing runs from 259,900 yuan for the N70 up to 299,900 yuan for the N90, positioning the lineup squarely in the premium family-SUV bracket. The early demand signal is striking: more than 100,000 pre-orders in the first week, including over 30,000 from the Beijing-Tianjin region alone for the seven-seat N90.
The strategic logic is clear — the shift to extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) powertrains targets a segment where margins are more generous. But the technical complexity is also higher. In the first quarter of 2026, the auto division generated 19.9 billion yuan in revenue on more than 80,000 deliveries. Whether the profitability of the existing EV line can carry over to the more intricate hybrid manufacturing process remains an open question.
There is one encouraging data point from elsewhere in the business. The operating margin in the "Handset + AIoT" segment rose 200 percent quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. Whether that margin acceleration can be replicated in hybrid production — without letting research spending, which reached 9 billion yuan, spiral — is one of the key variables for the months ahead.
Two Catalysts, Two Risks
The competitive landscape adds another layer of pressure. BYD and Li Auto are fighting hard for the same Chinese buyers, and the US market remains effectively closed due to 100-percent tariffs. Xiaomi's annual delivery target of 550,000 vehicles is also looking stretched: only around 220,000 units had been delivered through July. A significant miss on that figure would raise fresh doubts about the scalability of the car business.
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The company is not short on product news. On August 5, it open-sourced its robotics model "Xiaomi-Robotics-1," signaling intent to embed AI deeply into its hardware ecosystem. August 11 brings the unveiling of the Redmi K100 Pro, featuring an 8,580-mAh battery and the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 chipset — a device designed to reset expectations in the smartphone tier. Should that innovation pipeline convince investors, it could help stabilize the current market capitalization of €82.25 billion and provide a foundation for recovery.
What August Will Decide
The next few weeks will be shaped by two distinct events. The Redmi presentation on August 11 offers an early read on the health of the core smartphone franchise. But the more consequential test arrives in September, when the first official SkyNomad delivery numbers must show whether those 100,000-plus pre-orders convert into real sales.
For the August 18 earnings report, the focus will be less on top-line growth and more on one specific question: how hard have memory-chip prices actually hit the margin? The answer will determine whether the stock's recent slide extends or finally finds a floor. Between a founder who bought at HK$38.58, analysts targeting HK$39.6, and a share price that keeps drifting lower, the market is waiting for the data to settle the argument.
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