Xiaomi's August Crossroads: A Pricey Memory Squeeze Meets an Unproven SUV Bet
Published on 08/03/2026 at 14:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Shares of Xiaomi have spent the summer oscillating between pockets of optimism and a stubbornly entrenched downtrend, and the coming weeks look set to test which force wins out. The stock slipped 2.99% on Monday to EUR 3.14, leaving it roughly 52% below its 52-week high of EUR 6.51. While the equity has clawed back nearly 23% over the past month, it still trades more than 13% beneath its 200-day moving average of EUR 3.73 — a level chart watchers view as the key hurdle for any sustained recovery.
EV Deliveries Keep Climbing, But the Skeptics Aren't Swayed
The company's automotive division continues to churn out vehicles at a record clip. Xiaomi Auto delivered more than 30,000 units in July, marking the fourth consecutive month above that threshold. First-half deliveries totaled 185,055 vehicles, roughly 34% of the company's full-year target of 550,000 units. Yet the market's response has been muted at best, with traders attributing the recent pullback to profit-taking and valuation concerns rather than any single negative catalyst.
J.P. Morgan added a dose of caution on Monday, publishing a research note that cast doubt on Xiaomi's EV targets for 2026. The bank left its rating unchanged but signaled limited near-term upside for the shares. Specifics on price targets or the exact rating level were not disclosed.
SkyNomad: The Big Bet on Range-Extender SUVs
All eyes are now on the SkyNomad SUV series, which entered its next phase on July 30 when pre-orders opened for the N70 Max and N90 Max models. The lineup marks Xiaomi's debut in the range-extender EV (EREV) segment, with the N90 Max stretching 5.3 meters, delivering 422 horsepower, and offering a combined range of up to 1,700 kilometers thanks to its hybrid setup. Deliveries are slated to begin in September, with pricing positioned well below established premium rivals.
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The strategy leans heavily on a partnership with Harbin Dongan, a subsidiary of Changan, to produce the range-extender engines. Sourcing the technology externally is estimated to cost roughly USD 1,100 per unit, a move that should trim development expenses and accelerate time-to-market. The question investors are wrestling with: can Xiaomi scale these SUVs profitably without draining its cash reserves of approximately EUR 28 billion?
Smartphone Prices Surge as Memory Costs Quadruple
Meanwhile, the core smartphone business is navigating a different kind of pressure. As of Sunday, Xiaomi raised prices across virtually its entire lineup in China — the second increase this year. The hikes span the Redmi Turbo 5, the K90 series, and the Xiaomi 17 line, averaging around CNY 300 per device, with the flagship Xiaomi 17 Pro Max carrying an additional CNY 500. The increases apply uniformly regardless of whether a model uses Snapdragon or MediaTek chips.
Redmi president Lu Weibing attributed the move to sharply rising memory costs, which he said have nearly quadrupled, compounded by higher logistics and chip expenses. He described the current environment as the toughest the industry has faced in a decade. Prices in Hong Kong remain unchanged for now, while several Xiaomi and Redmi models in India have already seen increases.
The broader market reflects this trend. Global smartphone revenue hit a record USD 109 billion in the second quarter, up 7% year over year, even as unit volumes declined. Average selling prices climbed 17% to USD 400, according to Counterpoint Research. Xiaomi, however, recorded the steepest volume drop among major manufacturers, with shipments falling 26% and revenue down 17%. The silver lining: Xiaomi's average selling price rose 13%, signaling a deliberate shift toward higher-end devices.
Morgan Stanley offered a more constructive take in a July 31 research note, highlighting the smartphone division and pointing to persistently high prices as a margin-supporting factor. That view aligns with the current pricing offensive, which could help offset some of the component-cost drag on profitability.
Two Scenarios, One September Verdict
The bull case rests on operational momentum. First-quarter 2026 revenue reached CNY 99.1 billion, with the smartphone segment hitting a record average selling price of CNY 1,310. If August pre-orders for the SkyNomad series exceed expectations, the stock could find the fuel to push past its 100-day average of EUR 3.21 and hold it as support.
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The bear case is equally compelling. The stock's annualized volatility sits near 57%, and the distance to its 52-week high remains daunting. Competition in China's EV market stays brutal — BYD shipped over 419,000 vehicles in July alone. Should the market interpret Monday's decline as the start of a deeper correction, a slide toward the 52-week low of EUR 2.34 would represent another 38% downside.
Near-term catalysts are on the horizon: the POCO M8 Power 5G launches in India on August 4, followed by the Redmi K100 Pro series in China on August 11. As long as the stock holds above its 50-day average of EUR 2.92, the relative strength of the past month suggests a stabilization attempt could continue.
The real test arrives in September, when Xiaomi releases its first official sales figures for the SkyNomad lineup. Those numbers will determine whether the EREV strategy genuinely resonates with buyers — or whether the automotive expansion becomes a heavier drag on the balance sheet than the market is willing to tolerate.
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