XRP Braces for October 1 Escrow Release as ETF Demand and Security Fallout Collide
Published on 09/27/2026 at 05:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
A fresh batch of one billion XRP is set to leave Ripple's escrow vaults on October 1, a scheduled distribution that lands squarely in the middle of a tug-of-war between relentless institutional buying and a string of security headaches that have rattled holders over the past two weeks.
At the current price of 1.52 USD, the tranche carries a notional value of roughly 1.5 billion USD, though the headline figure overstates the real-world supply impact. The monthly unlock is hardwired into the escrow framework Ripple established in 2017, when 55 billion tokens were locked into staggered contracts. About 31.98 billion XRP remain under those agreements today. In practice, Ripple has routinely redirected the bulk of each month's release back into freshly dated escrow, keeping actual circulating supply well below the nominal number.
Institutional Bid Keeps a Floor Under Prices
Demand-side support has come largely from US spot ETFs tied to XRP, including vehicles from Bitwise and Franklin. Cumulative net inflows into the segment now sit near 1.8 billion USD, with the funds notching a tenth consecutive week of positive flows — a streak that has helped absorb sell pressure around the 1.60 USD zone.
Tuesday and Wednesday alone brought in a combined 38 million USD, pushing September's total to roughly 80 million USD and lifting lifetime inflows since launch to about 1.71 billion USD. The token trades at 1.54 USD, up 10 percent over the past seven days and 18 percent above its 50-day moving average.
Capital markets activity is reinforcing the trend. Evernorth Holdings, a Ripple-backed entity, secured 30 million USD in financing as part of its planned merger with the blank-check company Armada Acquisition Corp. II, a move designed to give public-market investors exposure to XRP-related business activity.
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Security Incidents Dent Sentiment
That steady inflow has had to compete with a run of troubling disclosures. On Thursday, crypto exchange Bitget reported unauthorized outflows from its hot and warm wallets. On-chain data attributed roughly 102.93 million XRP — worth about 157.48 million USD — to the breach, making it the single largest asset involved. Bitget said customer funds were safe and temporarily halted withdrawals while it investigated.
Days earlier, reports surfaced of a flaw in D'CENT's wallet application. Between September 15 and 20, affected users lost approximately 11.7 million XRP. The provider traced the problem to its app software, specifically affecting users who had entered their recovery phrase, and confirmed that the underlying XRP Ledger protocol itself showed no vulnerability.
Chart Resistance at 1.60 USD
Technically, the picture has tightened. After an early-week rebound, the price has repeatedly stalled in the 1.50 to 1.60 USD band. Analyst Ali Martinez points to the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern at 1.60 USD. A clean break above that level could open the door to 2.00 USD on paper, given the heavy volume traded in that range.
To the downside, the 50-day average at 1.32 USD serves as a reference point for bulls. Analyst ChartNerd is urging caution going into the fourth quarter: without a swift push through the 50-week line, XRP risks rejection and a consolidation phase into lower support zones.
Ripple Looks Past Short-Term Noise
Ripple's leadership is steering attention away from day-to-day price action. Speaking at the Phaena Forum, CEO Brad Garlinghouse argued that digital asset valuations ultimately come down to supply and demand, with institutional appetite and market liquidity mattering far more than raw transaction counts on the network.
The ecosystem around Ripple's settlement infrastructure keeps expanding. Total supply of the company's RLUSD stablecoin recently climbed to about 2.4 billion USD, with more than one billion units circulating directly on the XRP Ledger.
For traders, the question over the coming days is straightforward: whether the ETF bid is deep enough to digest the October 1 unlock and finally clear the 1.60 USD ceiling.
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