XRP's Supply Squeeze Meets a Demand Vacuum
Published on 11/07/2026 at 07:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
XRP is caught between two opposing forces. On one side, a wave of leveraged longs has been washed out and coins are leaving exchanges in size. On the other, the most visible source of fresh demand — US spot XRP ETFs — has gone quiet. The token trades at $1.15, down 2.4% on the day, and the tug-of-war between shrinking supply and stalled inflows is what will decide the next move.
The deleveraging has been brutal for bulls. Over the five days through today, more than $30 million in long positions were liquidated, according to media reports. Yesterday alone, longs accounted for $16.01 million — 95.54% of the day's total XRP liquidation volume of $16.75 million. That kind of flush removes the most crowded positioning from the book, which can set the stage for stabilization if the forced selling fades. It does not, by itself, create a recovery. For that, XRP needs buyers.
Exchange Outflows Tell a Different Story
On the supply side, the picture is more constructive. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that 418.5 million XRP left Binance on Wednesday, worth roughly $540 million at the time of transfer — the largest single-day outflow from the exchange in about nine months. If those tokens stay off the order books, selling pressure on Binance should ease. The caveat is that internal transfers could explain the move just as easily, so the signal only gains weight if the thinner availability persists and meets actual buying.
Wallet data points the same direction. Santiment figures show the number of addresses holding at least 1 million XRP hit a yearly high of 2,147 yesterday. Large wallets added roughly 60 million XRP over the past week, a sign that bigger players are accumulating at lower levels. That interest becomes a genuine recovery argument only if the accumulation continues and starts absorbing the selling — so far, the buildup has coincided with a still-weak price.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
The ETF Engine Has Stalled
What's missing is the demand channel that did much of the heavy lifting before. US spot XRP ETFs have pulled in a cumulative $1.81 billion since launching in November 2025, but the recent run has gone cold. The products logged their fourth straight trading day without net flows yesterday, and reports indicate no session with net inflows through the latest week. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday each settled at zero.
That contrast — a large accumulated asset base against a sudden freeze in daily demand — matters for anyone weighing an entry. The $1.81 billion describes the build-up since inception; a fresh buying impulse would require positive daily net flows to return and hold beyond a single session. Until then, a rebound leans more heavily on buyers outside the fund complex.
Sentiment and Chart Levels Set the Terms
Social sentiment on XRP fell today to its lowest level since July, according to Ali Martinez, who sees the heavy skepticism as potentially constructive for a reversal. His bullish read, though, comes with conditions. Martinez points to a possible inverse head-and-shoulders formation with a neckline at $1.60; only a breakout there could, in his view, bring $2.10 into play.
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A separate technical bar comes from Humphries, who wants to see stable daily closes above the $1.30 to $1.32 zone. A brief bounce would not satisfy his conditions for a more durable recovery.
Strip it all back and the recovery case rests on a short checklist: liquidations easing, ETF inflows returning, and a confirmed bottom. The Binance outflows and millionaire-wallet growth give the thesis a positive starting point. While fund demand stays at zero and the price keeps sliding, the near-term headwinds still have the upper hand.
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