Barrick Gold’s Momentum Builds Ahead of Critical Earnings Report

The surge in gold prices to unprecedented levels is creating a powerful tailwind for major producers, with Barrick Gold emerging as a standout performer. As the company approaches the release of its full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 results, investors are assessing whether the favorable market conditions have fully translated into improved profitability, cash generation, and future guidance.

Gold’s remarkable ascent has been the central catalyst. In 2025, the precious metal’s value increased by approximately 65%, with gains briefly touching 70% before profit-taking activity. Prices reached an interim peak above $4,400 per ounce, establishing a new historical benchmark. This rally has been driven by a confluence of factors: heightened trade policy tensions and new tariffs, record-level central bank purchases, interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve with expectations of more, geopolitical conflicts including U.S.-Venezuela tensions, and robust demand for safe-haven assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

For Barrick, these record selling prices per ounce present significant potential for margin expansion, even in the face of rising operational costs.

Financial Expectations and Upcoming Report

Barrick has scheduled the publication of its 2025 annual and Q4 results for February 5, 2026, with an announcement made on January 7, 2026. Management will host a webcast to present the figures, followed by an analyst Q&A session.

Market consensus estimates paint a picture of substantial growth:
- 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS): $2.28, representing a 79.4% increase from 2024.
- 2026 EPS: $3.41, a projected 51.4% rise from 2025.
- Q4 2025 Revenue: $5.15 billion, up 41.4% year-over-year.

These projections indicate the market is pricing in robust earnings growth, primarily attributed to the elevated gold price and anticipated margin improvement.

Share Price Strength and Technical Context

Barrick's equity has experienced a significant upward trajectory. Over the past twelve months, the share price has advanced roughly 164%, with a gain of about 15% in the last 30 days alone. Recent trading saw shares close at €40.60, just shy of the 52-week high of €40.83.

From a technical analysis perspective, the stock is trading approximately 64% above its 200-day moving average and nearly 15% above its 50-day line. A 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 28.4 suggests the equity is in short-term oversold territory following its prior strong run, potentially indicating a phase of increased volatility.

Analyst Sentiment Turns Increasingly Bullish

Growing confidence in the uptrend is reflected in recent analyst actions, with several investment banks upgrading their assessments.

• Jefferies reaffirmed its "Buy" rating, elevated the price target from $46 to $55, and highlighted Barrick as a "Top-Pick" among major gold miners.
• BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the stock from "Neutral" to "Outperform," raising its target from $34.50 to $50.
• UBS confirmed its "Buy" recommendation and increased its price target from $39 to $47.
• DA Davidson reiterated a "Buy" rating with a $42 target.
• Bernstein SocGen maintained an "Outperform" rating with a target of C$64.

Jefferies analyst Fahad Tariq cited attractive sector valuations as a basis for the positive view, suggesting gold equities are well-positioned to expand margins and grow free cash flow in 2026.

Valuation Remains Moderate Despite Gains

Even after the powerful rally, Barrick's valuation appears relatively moderate within the industry context. Based on forward estimates, its P/E ratio stands at 12.84, which is about 4.7% below the sector average of 13.47.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Barrick?

Key Financial Metrics:
- Market Capitalization: $75.4 billion
- Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) P/E: 21.19
- TTM EPS: $2.08
- 52-Week Range: $15.31 to $46.46
- Beta: 0.89

The company also offers a dividend yield of 1.6%, supported by a payout ratio of 32%. This provides scope for further capital returns to shareholders without straining the balance sheet.

Operational Hurdles: Costs and Production

The glittering gold price environment does not overshadow all operational challenges. Third-quarter 2025 results revealed pressure on the cost base and production issues.
- All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) rose to $1,538 per ounce.
- Pure cash costs increased by approximately 3% year-over-year.
- Gold production fell by 12% to 829,000 ounces.
- The Loulo-Gounkoto mine in Mali remains suspended.

For the full year 2025, Barrick guides cash costs between $1,050 and $1,130 per ounce and AISC between $1,460 and $1,560. Planned gold production is forecast in a range of 3.15 to 3.5 million ounces. Consequently, part of the earnings momentum depends on the company's ability to manage costs and stabilize output.

Strategic Diversification into Copper

Alongside its gold operations, Barrick is strategically expanding its copper business. This move aims to capitalize on the global electrification trend and reduce reliance on gold price fluctuations.

Core projects include:
- The expansion of the Lumwana mine in Zambia, expected to significantly boost copper production.
- The Reko Diq project in Pakistan, slated to deliver substantial volumes of copper and gold starting in 2028.

The company produced around 195,000 tonnes of copper in 2024 and holds considerable copper reserves alongside its extensive gold resources. This diversification provides a broader earnings base in a market where copper is considered a critical raw material for the energy transition and electric mobility.

Financial Resilience and Shareholder Returns

Barrick maintains a robust financial position. Following a further debt repayment of $500 million, its net debt level is near zero. This strong balance sheet allows the company to finance growth while returning capital to shareholders.

Recent shareholder-friendly measures include:
- An increase in the regular quarterly dividend to $0.125 per share.
- Additional supplemental payments of $0.05 per quarter.
- A share buyback program totaling $1 billion.

In Q3 2025, Barrick generated operating cash flow of $2.4 billion—an 82% increase from the previous quarter. This robust cash generation provides flexibility to fund investments in projects like Lumwana and Reko Diq without compromising shareholder distributions.

Conclusion: High Stakes Ahead of Earnings

Barrick enters the reporting season bolstered by record gold prices, strong projected earnings growth, and a solid balance sheet. However, rising costs, production declines, and mine suspensions remain pertinent risk factors. The critical test on February 5 will be whether the company can confirm ambitious growth expectations, demonstrate progress on cost and production control, and provide a convincing outlook for 2026.