DroneShield Shares Rally on Strong Orders and Analyst Confidence

The Australian defense technology firm DroneShield has opened the 2026 trading year with notable momentum. On the first trading day, its shares led gains on the ASX 200, advancing 8.12% to close at AUD 3.33. This positive start is buoyed by a record-breaking performance in 2025 and a series of fresh military contracts announced in recent weeks.

Market experts remain broadly optimistic about the company's prospects. The consensus rating among analysts is a "Strong Buy," with a median 12-month price target of AUD 4.70. This suggests a potential upside of approximately 41% from current levels, with more bullish scenarios pointing to AUD 5.00—a gain of over 50%. This confidence is rooted in several key factors:
- Increasing global defense budgets amid persistent geopolitical tensions
- Growing demand for integrated counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS)
- An expanding product suite, including the DroneSentry-C2 command-and-control platform
- Established distribution channels that continue to generate repeat business

A Volatile Yet Record-Setting 2025

Last year was one of extraordinary gains and significant correction for the stock. DroneShield’s equity delivered an annual return of 310.67% in 2025, ranking it among the market's most conspicuous performers. After reaching an all-time high of AUD 6.60 in early October, the share price underwent a sharp pullback, declining by as much as 53% from its peak.

The correction found a floor in late November at AUD 1.72. Since that low, the stock has staged a recovery of roughly 88%, indicating sustained investor interest in this specialist provider of anti-drone technology.

Key Financial Metrics:
- 2025 Annual Performance: +310.67%
- 52-Week Range: AUD 0.585 – AUD 6.705
- Current Market Capitalization: Approximately AUD 2.91 billion
- Recovery from November Low: ~ +88%

Recent Contract Wins Bolster Backlog

The company closed 2025 with two significant contract announcements, reinforcing its order book and demonstrating recurring demand from defense partners.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying DroneShield?

On December 24, 2025, DroneShield disclosed a standalone AUD 6.2 million order from a military end-user in the Asia-Pacific region. This marks the 15th contract from this specific reseller within a two-year period, bringing the cumulative business volume with this partner to over AUD 48 million.

Just days later, on December 30, a follow-on contract worth AUD 8.2 million was secured with a Western military customer. The order encompasses portable counter-drone systems, accessories, spare parts kits, and ongoing software support, with delivery scheduled for early in the first quarter of 2026.

Operational Success Amid Q4 Share Price Turbulence

The fourth quarter presented a stark contrast between operational achievements and share price volatility. In October, the company reported a staggering quarterly revenue increase of 1,091%. Despite this, the stock's downward trend initially continued, pressured by several factors:
- Vesting of Performance Options: On November 5, nearly 44.5 million options vested after the company achieved AUD 200 million in cash inflows within a twelve-month period.
- Insider Transactions: CEO Oleg Vornik sold 14.81 million shares between November 6 and 12, with a total value of AUD 49.79 million.
- Broader Market Sentiment: A mid-October downturn on Wall Street contributed to a more risk-averse environment.

The scale of the insider sales, in particular, unsettled some investors, as markets often interpret such moves as a signal of potentially full valuations.

Technical Perspective Indicates Continued Recovery

The technical picture has recently improved. The share price is now trading decisively above its 50-day moving average, a signal typically viewed as positive for an ongoing uptrend. Trading volume on January 2 increased alongside the price advance—a pattern that usually indicates genuine buying interest.

The closing price marked the highest level since December 24, 2025, confirming the ongoing recovery phase. Immediate support levels are seen around AUD 3.17 and AUD 2.38, while initial resistance lies near AUD 3.40. How the equity handles these levels in the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the powerful performance of 2025 can extend into the new year.